Friday, January 31, 2014
It's endogenous you dip shits !
Forget external shocks look at the eruptions......
Model in the flux and the convulsions.......
It's like earth surface tremor science look below and inside
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
The retreat from..................................................... "The point is to change the economy "............... back to. .............. " the point is to understand it"
Macro has performed this retrogression before
........In the stagflag high hideous 70's......
Now it looks like it may happen again........
We have the means and the know how to run
a red hot set of job markets in perpetuity
And to maintain an inverted Beveridge ratio
Super flex trade balancing forex policy etc etc
......
In fact We had the core model for this policy path ....in 1940 ....give or take a few ham fisted aspects.....
like price and wage control boards
And a few snares .....like a non " autonomous forex flex " set of national currencies.......
Btw Those two problematics were cleared up in the 70's......
One by Nixon setting our
Forex free ....
and the other ....at least on the drafting table
....by designing a few contrived social market mechanisms
To tame and guide product prices directly....
and implicitly wage and profit rates
.......
But on the other hand we lost a few necessary structures on the road to stagflag
....bigest loss?.....instead of retaining the servo mechanism FED
Of the post war years
early on
in 51 Korean war in high dudgeon
we went back to the old FEDgemonic fudgemonic system
......
Ending the zero or less real safe rate
The 70's added the kill shot with the price soarings
Thus raising on high the wage push inflation Demon .....of course
With no attempt to bridle the brute socially ...beyond using the fedgemonic beast ....
Yes with its bare hande the 666 fed strangled
the wage price snake in midst up spiral.....
Better permanent solutions suggested at the time have since evaporated from the policy hive mind
Nope we simply
Restored the strategic roll of the ever fluxing army of idled hands....
Though thr method got re christened NAIRU.....
And the academy?
Well its new leaders plunged into a wave of nihilistic purging of all practical fiscal stimulus Rxs
..........
And set off an orgy of silly hoodoo voodoo called micro founding in the top shelf journals
.........
Comes the contraction of 08 and the whole post 70's enterprising is put on trial
Seems however now the outcomes are contained
once again changing the system is off the to do list
.?...?
More on this in time
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Saturday, January 18, 2014
From hand operated macro targets to dynamic state of the system guided algorithms
The metamorphosis has just begun Even though the suggestion is as old as meaDe circa 1940
Friday, January 17, 2014
"Zero real " interest rate for uncle S revolutionizes fiscal activism
Make this policy perpetual and risk less borrowing is unlimited
Pure opportunity cost
Allocation by ration
So forget bursts of negative real safe rates
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