## Wednesday, October 31, 2012

### "there is no such thing as an uninsurable risk....."

there are just risks with too high premiums "

so uncle steps in ...right ?

how ?

let us count the ways  uncle is unlike a private  insurance compnay

uncle has   risky mae for big cats
where did she come from ?

" Governmental disaster insurance schemes didn’t appear magically in a vacuum;
they were created because no one was willing to pay enough money in premiums
to allow insurance companies to properly fund for them,
and as a result the inevitable losses were uncovered."

### a gaseous reply to the sandman

sand man:

"But... but... arguing over a multiplier makes it a value-free ideology!"
Skillful divisions among specialists can parse out responsibility beyond recognition as such
This dark side of the moon has it's bright side
We can shorten the time line for Lady Progress
who as we all ought to know by now
is no damn humanist

...
Old Job's enlightenment is a cautionary lesson to us all
How dare we frail limited beings question the unfolding stages
Of Clio's working out of jehovah's grand imminent design
For us

Would you rewrite Shakespeare ?
Have faith we as earth's top species
And ghosh darn it
a glory of our own making

### the constrained choice that preserves the system

mitt or barry ?

Okay so it could be a wee bit less constrained
but kalecki macro policy
Would prove  to be  the thin  edge of the wedge

after all that more or less leads to a profit squeeze wage price spiral ...no ?

Why revisit the roaring70's ?

That is unless you have a cure
for the wage/ profit product price spiral

cures  exist

but they break the constraints

cures  would only push the system away from
it's self preserving center
of de facto state power

ahhh The private oligopoly outfits

they find the way forward eventually
after trying every other way first

and even when they move the system forward
one can easily count the piles  of  forgone private  wages
and social output

latest example

the fall 08 crisis ...

12 trillion in sacrficed output
to find the way thru this
whilst keeping within the system constraints

### behind nick rowe's ass looms a barking dog ...or two

On Nick Rowe's point about the competing definitions of money, clearly both are there. Indeed, that they both operate is key to the fundamental contradiction that faces monetary policymakers all the time: whether to expand or limit the size of the money supply, whatever it is. The medium of exchange function says, "expand" so the economy can grow, while the unit of account function says "limit it" so that the unit of account can retain its value over time. There is no escape from this conflict.

Paine said in reply to Barkley Rosser...
Nick has simply drawn up another useless fragment world
The apparent significance comes from the word gold
The social choice of medium of account here needs motivation
Just what he can't provide
The pure medium of account is an entirely different sort of entity
From commodity money or commodities
Its like the word tree or the number two
The trick is realizing our obligations fixed in some medium of account
Untied to real supply constraints
Has a purely social existence like spoken language
I'm too bored to make full sense of this
But once again
Nick has draughted up a toon tale
From his own private Cockroach terrace of the dismal science
Again as usual
Nick has obliviously awakened
a frost giant he can hardly manage
It's supply is limitless and of no material cost

Paine said in reply to Paine...
Nick's consistent big trick
Turn everything into an exchange system super imposed on a pure human services
Production system
He abstracts from every particular that characterizes
our principal existing market system
private production relying primarily on co operating groups of wage paid
Skill divided machine assisted direct producers
A social production system Organized and activated for Private profit
Any goony toon
game board
spuriously essentializing conjury of his
Is just another. Duck blind another
Shooting gallery
To conceal our misery from ourselves
With his lates paper and paste potemkin citizen paradise
market system for real products in the full commodity form

Paine said in reply to Paine...
He's challenging for a big chair here
The George Will professor of play station PAC man political economy

Paine said in reply to Barkley Rosser...
You get it of course
There has to be an implicit assumption
The inter temporal obligation grid
is set in units of what ever is the universally accepted means of payment
Providing more of this medium is costless to the supplier
So it could be provided limitlessly on demand
To pay for real products
But this may well alter product prices
And this mpacts the value of this inter temporal grid

Paine said in reply to Paine...
If some monarch set and reset the exchange ratio between the currency
and the unit of account used in the obligation grid superimposed on the payments system
Well...he or she would soon enough get out sourced along with his or her unit of account
Beyond his or her ability to extract tax payments etc in his or her choice of means of payment

Paine said in reply to Paine...
The absurd genteel discourse among tenured Econ con coxcomb. Merlins
Just call John Taylor a Plutocrats street whore mr Paul K
Be a Nassau county St Francis
Go naked into the fields
Calling out these mountebanks by name and address

Do it for the great flocks of american peoples
you wish to serve

### an exchange on mitt's han jeep jump whopper

pgl said...
Ah c'mon. Why is this news? Romney has lied about EVERYTHING. Don't you know he is running for LIAR IN CHIEF?

Paine said in reply to pgl...
I'm surprised at you pro growth
Here I must play the popular front defender of our bourgeois liberal institutions
Romney has campaigned as if to prove explicitly
The media can not stop a well funded all fronts assault on the objective truth
Yes I know the so called objective truth is such a bourgeois shibboleth
But surely this campaign if it succeeds
Will pave the way to..all future campaigns
Once a candidate loses fear of the media
so long as he or she retains ample donors
able to buy up adequate air time and space on this very same media

The challenge here is to the old elite channels of the news
Mitt has said to them
Fuck u

Paine said in reply to Paine...
Yes the little bush big Chaney gang
had the essence of this on board
With their
" we are the makers of reality not it's observers "
meme
Now this campaign certifies the new politics
The genteel old broadcasting networks and big city daily outfits
With their confected objectivity in reportage
Is impudently insolently slapped in the face
Literally every day by the mitt band wagon

Paine said in reply to Paine...
Ya the old jags derseve no beter
But it's the American little guys white as well as rain bowed
that will take the shot to the chops here

Paine said in reply to Paine...
I recall the media bringing down nixon
And I recall the media " deciding" to accept Reagan
But now the arrogant sclerotic bastards are getting cuffed around like parlor pets

Paine said in reply to SomeCallMeTim...
Blaming the white uneducated low info electorate is silly
The liberal guardians of these narrow minded warped fools
And all their. Sacred " rights" and exceptional" prosperity"
The big media
are failing to protect them from this vulture

jonathan said...
One idea is that there is a marketplace for information and that more players, more information not only generates more "information" but acts as a corrective which encourages better information. This is a version of the idea that markets are beneficial; it takes the idea of market optimization and adds to it the kind of qualitative outcome proponents of market theories say are the natural result.
In contrast there is the idea that bad drives out good. Advertising for false medical remedies didn't go away until they were regulated, etc.
Looking at what's been happening, it looks like political advertising is more like medical remedies than what proponents of markets hope. There is a benefit in lying. Or at least a perceived benefit in lying and that's what counts. Lose the election and lie again the next time.
I'm going to remember how this has evolved whenever anyone says we should rely on markets to achieve an optimal result. We may want a result but that doesn't mean markets will generate what we want. This was the old rationale for regulation: unchecked, markets go their own way and that can be bad because markets generate outcomes that are optimal only in the sense they are generated by the market.

Paine said in reply to jonathan...
The old media giants provided de facto regulations
Used for Madison avenue as well
But this is medicine show stuff
Without a sheriff to run em out of the county

denim said...
I hear that God is on our side, those of us who work righteousness. Acts 10:34:
"Then Peter opened his mouth, and said, Of a truth I perceive that God is no respecter of persons: But in every nation he that feareth him, and works righteousness, is accepted with him."
And for lying politicians of any ilk, Psalm 50:
"These things you have done and I kept silent; you thought I was altogether like you. But I will rebuke you and accuse you to your face."
If looks could stop a clock,
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/romney-says-hes-winning-its-a-bluff.html

Dave said...
My only quibble with this premise: We've never had a "truth" era in US politics, so we can't have a "post-truth" era. Pick a supposed idyllic time when men were real men, and I'll give you a completely outrageously wrong political lie that formed the centerpiece of a party agenda.

Paine said in reply to Dave...
Come now surely we can discuss degree changes
And surely as a system heats up it goes thru qualitative changes
Might we not have seen red hot lies final boil off the water in the pan here ?

Isn't this like global warming leading to climate change
And like climate change
Given the gravity of change
Imagine a completely impotent media
unable to mediate and moderate
It's certainly a conjecture one ought to consider thrusts the burden of proof on the rejection side

Oupoot said...
Only in the US. Freedom of speech is critical for democracy and should be protected. But most civilised countries have placed limits to this right precisely so that they remain civilised.

Mano Philips said...
My comment on Dana Milbank's Washington Post column
"Romney goes off-road with the truth"
The Elephant in the Room

It was Romney who shipped thousands of Auto jobs to China; why is MSM silent on this.

Investigative Reporter Greg Palast on Truthout

"The truth? On June 1, 2009, the Obama administration announced that Detroit Piston's owner Tom Gores, GM and the US Treasury would buy back Delphi.The plan called for saving 15 of 29 Delphi factories in the US. Then the vulture funds pounced. The Nation discovered that, in the two weeks immediately following the announcement of the Delphi jobs-saving plan, Paul Singer, Romney's partner, secretly bought up over a billion dollars of old Delphi bonds for pennies on the dollar. Singer and partners now controlled the company - and killed the return of Delphi to GM. These facts were revealed in a sworn deposition of Delphi's Chief Financial Officer John Sheehan, confidential, but now released on the Web. Sheehan said, under oath, that these speculators threatened to withhold key parts (steering columns), from GM. This would have brought the auto maker to its knees, immediately forcing GM's permanent closure. The extortion worked. The government money that was supposed to go to save jobs went to Singer's hedge fund, Elliott Management Corporation and its partners, including the Romneys. Once Singer's crew took control of Delphi, they rapidly completed the move to China, sticking the US taxpayers with the bill for the pensions of the Delphi workers cut loose. Dan Loeb, a million-dollar donor to the GOP, who made three-quarters of a billion dollars off the legal scam, proudly announced that, once he and Elliott took control, Delphi kept "virtually no North American unionized labor." In all, three hedge funds run by Romney's million-dollar donors have pocketed \$4.2 billion, a return on their "investment" of over 3,000 percent - all care of the US taxpayer. The Romneys personally earned a minimum of \$15.3 million, though more likely \$115 million - a range their campaign does not dispute.

Delphi Workers - Greg Palast - http://www.gregpalast.com/how-mitt-romney-profited-from-delphi-workers-misery/ Truthout - http://truth-out.org/progressivepicks/item/12273-romney-company-shipped-every-single-delphi-uaw-job-to-china The Nation - Romney's Bailout Bonanza - http://www.thenation.com/article/170644/mitt-romneys-bailout-bonanza#

Paine said in reply to Mano Philips...
The tale here may be off some
But we have entered a period where something this enormous is too easily believed
By the educated liberal elite
We have no grand media guardians out there exposing this utterly grotesque activity
Once the large privately owned national media outfits are utterly impotent
Unable to enforce at least some measure of veracity and transparency
On the waring parties
The formal freedom of the press
Becomes completely irrelevant
And the illusion of truths media based guardianship
this formal freedom may sustain
Becomes more dangerous then a totally controled
1984 type state press

Paine said in reply to Paine...
It's always been the case a liar can simply replace one lie with the next
It's only if the media brands a serial liar just that
A serial liar
Not as opinion but as news
"Serial liar mitt Romney today said"
in the lede
As in serial killer ted bundy got labeled a serial killer
The big media has to call Romney out
Or it loses it's power to protect the low info citizen majority
Reality is a social construction
Right now the feckless big corporate press is failing it's chief mission

Yes the era of McCarthy saw serial liars abound
they were finally reigned in only years later and with the usual long half life
Here the consequence of mitt winning could last many political cycles
Perhaps this new era of info nets
Requires the old info net to fall flat on it's face
As part of the transition
If so let us hope the new info system quickly self organizes the corral within which a workable connection to the facts is maintained again

save_the_rustbelt said...
Stayed in my Toledo condo last night, a few miles from the Jeep plant.
Chrysler Jeep has in the past (until 2009) and will likely in the future produce Jeeps in China. The only promise by Marchionne (SP?) is that current Wrangler production will not be moved overseas.
The (Toledo) Blade has done better journalism on this than the national media.

Paine said in reply to save_the_rustbelt...
Rusty
Come on
The story is as big as big as Paul bunion
But it's standing on size 2 fact feet
If mitt is just play politics as usual
I've been asleep my whole life
Nixon would never dare to pull stunts like
The Romney campaign pulls day after day

Paine said in reply to Paine...
Nixon hated the press but he feared it
Mitt has contempt for the press and gaffs at it

Paine said in reply to Paine...
Here I mean the press as guardian of a de facto set of game rules on fact telling
The stretch limits and frequency ceilings in other words

Paine said in reply to Paine...
Oh go ahead rusty vote mitt
The rust belt is in for a big scrub off
Now starting plant floor wages are half what they once were

Paine said in reply to Paine...
However the spontaneous rate of re industrialization for some time
will remain below the rate of deindustrialization
Only an overt and massive industrial program funded and directed from Washington can get our production platform back up to 1946 type global status

### Free rider Charybdis free loader Scylla

taking your look from a  white male low ed voter perspective

the dembots since 1968
have gotten their brand on the wrong side of both these monsters

## Tuesday, October 30, 2012

### new most repulsive humanoid

timmy tubfest
" I rarely watch 8 hours of television per week, much less per day. "

"I had a conversation the other day in which someone was incredulous
that I have never seen an episode of Seinfeld, or Friends,
or actually any sitcom in the last decade or so."

" I told them that I used to watch M*A*S*H now and then
, and they looked at me with pity."

pity ?

pity!

"get out the flame thrower"  i say

roast the prig pig

### "the Federal Government should undertake no governmental, social or economic action, except where local government, or the people, cannot undertake it for themselves ... "

thanx for the tip herbie

pretty big gaps there to sail  the top down totalization fleet thru

can not standing alone
provide  adequate metrics   of either  equity or efficiency
no comparative dynamics

a set of evaluative  metric dimensions scream at us to be heard
b4 we assign tasks to levels and sectors
building the best set of institutions gets very little light from this Hooverian  maxim

### little guy big bogosity bobby reich : "America faces a huge budget deficit"

can he really NOT see the facts here ?

is he just hungry for more revenue ?

has he never worked thru the numbers on debt accumulation  rates
debt service rates   real gdp growth rates and inflation rates ?

is that possible ?

## Monday, October 29, 2012

### socialization of household usury

that is the great new macro tool
activated conciously during the post war era
even in the pre great moderation phases

basically  heat up  the residential  mortgage market ...chill the residential  mortgage market

oh ya and car loan markets

then came credit cards  student loans

a vast symphony of  household debt instruments

stock

servicing burden

## Wednesday, October 24, 2012

### tory versus jack ass recovery track

The US and UK, 2007–12: actual versus predicted paths

### housing hits macro coming and going

MEW ?

mortgage equity withdrawal

check out peal MEW
more like a roar eh ?

### zero real return "citizen " bonds ( ZRRs )

this amounts to stable  purchasing power
and beside that social good

it means no ability to use the product price level path to "trim"
latent purchasing power  contained in the bond stock /debt stock/obligation grid

in the event of outflow exceeding inflow to this stock of  zero real bonds
where old issue pay offs exceed new issue buy  ups
and with  final output  production running at capacity

and inadequate buffer stocks of final products
we get a broad  product price event
or shortages

how might this be pre empted
by forward looking   price increase  policy

if this stock is real PP protected
then there is no way to trim this demand

would one  increase taxes on work income

as far in advance as possible ?

to reduce the inflow to the   stock  of  ZRRs

now consider

a  "savings system "
where bonds  are issued with real coupon returns equal to the change in per job hour real output ?

## Tuesday, October 23, 2012

### excessive levels of foreign exchange reserves :is this screen sound inhunt to find the forex fiddlers

nope
this is perhaps sufficient evidence but not necessary evidence
trad might even be in deficit

we need to do a fairly complex calculation to scoop up all the forex arbitrage profits

we gotta start with real exchange ratios between products and between wages and other resources at ppp

build a ppp consistent synthetic forex rate etc etc blah blah blah

### gagnon omics part II he is more then just a titanic quantitative easer

"Widespread currency manipulation, mainly in developing and newly industrialized economies, is the most important development of the past decade in international financial markets. In an attempt to hold down the values of their currencies, governments are distorting capital flows by around \$1.5 trillion per year. The result is a net drain on aggregate demand in the United States and the euro area by an amount roughly equal to the large output gaps in the two economies. In other words, millions more Americans and Europeans would be employed if other countries did not manipulate their currencies and instead achieved sustainable growth through higher domestic demand.
.... In order to get manipulators to agree to this change in international rules, the main targets of currency manipulation—the United States and the euro area—may have to play tough. "

here's gaggy's solution:

".. tax or otherwise restrict purchases of US and euro area financial assets by currency manipulators."

View full document [pdf]

### busting a klein bottle

" 1) What you’re saying when you say you want to put an end to global currency manipulation is that you want a weaker dollar. That’s what currency manipulation is: An effort by other countries to artificially strengthen the dollar in order to make their currency — and thus their exports — comparatively cheaper. But if we want to weaken our dollar, we could just, you know, weaken the dollar."

"2) China is not the world’s worst currency manipulator, or even particularly close to it. Singapore is worse than China. Taiwan is worse than China. These days, Switzerland and Japan are arguably worse than China. And there are other countries, like Israel, who aren’t worse than China, but who are still pretty bad. :

Now, most of these countries are also much smaller than China, so we care about them a bit less. But still, it’s hard to take aim at China when so many other countries are getting worse. To the Chinese, it looks like you’re singling them out."

"3) China is getting much better. They’ve allowed their currency to rise substantially in recent years. Gagnon told me that China’s ”current account peaked at 10.7 percent of GDP in 2007. This year, it looks like it’ll only be 2 percent.” It seems a bit weird to intensify the pressure on China, and to try and publicly humiliate them, at the exact moment when they’re doing what we’ve been asking them to do.there was a very good case for the [U.S.] to take action against China five years ago, but not now.”"

"4) Calling someone a “currency manipulator” doesn’t trigger some magical process that leads to them no longer manipulating their currency. On its own, its nothing but an international insult. But if you follow through, then it’s a first step towards slapping tariffs on Chinese goods. But then China can begin slapping retaliatory tariffs on our goods. Does anyone think that a trade war with China would be a good thing right now? If so, why?"

"5) Many experts think calling China a “currency manipulator” will backfire. China, at times, seems to run a pride-based foreign policy. If the rest of the world demands they do something, they simply refuse to do it. After all, it doesn’t look good to ordinary Chinese if China is permitting America to set its monetary policy. Thus, if you want to call China a “currency manipulator,” you need an explanation for why that’s a better strategy than the one we’re following, which has actually led to China permitting its currency to appreciate. “Getting tough” is a posture, not a policy argument.
For the record, there are experts, like Gagnon, who believe that the United States needs to think about how to get tougher on currency manipulation overall. He’s got some ideas on how to do that here. But the case to just get tough on China, and to do it by trying to humiliate them on the world stage, is much weaker today than it was five or eight years ago."

## Monday, October 22, 2012

### slow down ahead for han express?

"Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down."

" The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around \$17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices"

", a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015."

" Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates"

all  quotes from barry eichy et al

### have they rectified the Han fiddle yet ?

At the same time. China’s surplus has come way down:

that plunging surplus

an indication we might sound the " all clear"  ?

of course not !!!!

christ the fiddle sticks thru balanced trade if balance is contrived by
"other means" then pure forex adjustments

greater and lesser depressions

that left arm
--prior to trough-
shows the gentle ben difference

### keynesian klarabell krugman goes deep and finds only " a samuelsonian social contrivance "

" the notion that there must be a “fundamental” source for money’s value, although it’s a right-wing trope, bears a strong family resemblance to the Marxist labor theory of value."

" In each case what people are missing is that value is an emergent property, not an essence: money, and actually everything, has a market value based on the role it plays in our economy — full stop."

"value is an emergent property, not an essence"

we all know essences never  emerge

think plato's cave

essences  don't exist
their fans simply  insist

"the Marxist labor theory of value"

" he's talking about the marxist labor theory of value  ...marxist ! you noodle head.... marxist !"

ricardo sighs with relief

------------------------------------------
"actually everything, has a market value
based on the role it plays in our economy"

markets create by emergence  the value of everything
and  so are we to suppose
the price of nothing

labor plays its role less well  these days
or does it just have a smaller part ?

of course there are no small roles  only small....essences

### IT COMES DOWN TO WHO BORROWS

the present effective demand dirth can only be filled up with borrowed funds

uncle borrows and pays out is always beter then we the weebles getting special re introductory usury terms and amounts eh ?

now of course we can't even trigger a usury fueled boom here anyway

so .....

### paula versus dean

debate topic

what if we had just let laputa sink to the bottom of the atlantic ?

paula
"heavens what a bigger mess we'd be in today"

dean
" we'd be right about where we are "

-------------------------------------------

the implied dean line:

separate the lot bubble pop
from its hi fi laputa knock on effects and...?

somehow imagine we don't get the  knock on hi fi laputa market  effects

remove the spike

we'd still have the lot plop though maybe its a slow slow  many many quarter plop

------------------------------------------------------------------------
notes to myself:

---an expectational  quantum shift convulsion ??---

---the repro market convulsion happens of course i guess ---

at any rate look at it in reverse:

without the underlying fast contraction of lot values

the fall 08 crisis might have proceeeded  like the dot com pop after math
or  the after math of the earlier savings and loan blow out
ie
without the huge bash to  medium term  householder spending
that the house lot hyper quick by lot dynamic standards
' pop and plop'  collateral  crash registered

in the after math of the lot melt down
underwater householders spending fueled by go go usury policy
could not resume

and since a first world north hemi wage boom was out of the question....

### securitization advanced during the great moderation ...and so did" derivatization"

"..from 1990-2005 the estimated sum of equity-market capitalization,
outstanding total bond issues (sovereign and corporate) and global bank assets
rose from 81% to 137% ...."of Global GP (gross product),

the last bit
bank assets is of course traditional monoploy stage financialization
a guilded age dinosaur ..still thriving ..till it crashed..
on its crazy eddie  off regulation edges

derivatives ?

" ..over-the-counter derivatives markets tripled" between 2000 and 2005
to \$285 trillion.."
"..six times .." Global GP

## Saturday, October 20, 2012

### Plansmart institute to open in January

eve abel and my older brother js are at long last giving us
a tentaive  launch date

first erection
the mark up warrant mechanism

## Wednesday, October 17, 2012

### euro zone secessionism

of course it makes sense

when the functions of the state worth keeping
are all at the level of the euro corral
not the historic state level

nationalism is fragmenting these historic accidents
into more solid basic  units

divide today to re unify at a higher level tomorrow

## Monday, October 15, 2012

### pk nicky knot hola and the debt burden waddlings of n successive generations

" a debt inherited from the past is, in effect, simply a rule requiring that one group of people — the people who didn’t inherit bonds from their parents — make a transfer to another group, the people who did" pk
pk avoids the main point of rowe
bonds bought not inherited

what rowe misses
sells the bonds to a third generation
and on and on it goes
"It’s quite possible that debt can raise the consumption of one generation and reduce the consumption of the next generation during the period when members of both generations are still alive" pk

of course
but the real transfer such as it is
whenever it occurs
and between whom so ever
is an incomplete accounting
of a system moving forever through time
we buy bonds we sell bonds
its a relay thru time
only at an end of time
can the accounting be complete

------------------------------------------

what  about the rate of growth  of debt by rate of  interest
what if its  continually faster than the growth  rate of the economy"

in a model
the rate ratio assumption
g/r
where g is gdp growth rate
and r the average rate of payment
on existing sovereign debt
can create scare stories

because one can assume any pair of rates one wants to assume

but if we look even a little at social reality
out there
ie the historical record
Clio shows us
the growth rate exceeds the debt service rate
over long hauls

and of course the ratio is always under the potential control
of the central bank
in a pure credit money system like ours

## Friday, October 12, 2012

### polarizing wealth can have no merit

"the model assumes that all households are identical with respect to patience (consumption decisions) and skill (earnings ability). Household outcomes differ solely because they have idiosyncratic investment opportunities—that is, they can’t invest in the market, only in things like privately-held businesses or unique pieces of real estate. Yet when you simulate the model, you see an increasing share of wealth finding its way into fewer and fewer hands:"

### how we got down here

the first graph is non-routine cognitive
the second is non-routine manual
the third is routine

"In the last 30 years the US labor market has been characterized by job polarization and jobless recoveries. In this paper we demonstrate how these are related. We first show that the loss of middle-skill, routine jobs is concentrated in economic downturns. In this sense, the job polarization trend is a business cycle phenomenon. Second, we show that job polarization accounts for jobless recoveries. This argument is based on the fact that almost all of the contraction in aggregate employment during recessions can be attributed to job losses in middle-skill, routine occupations (that account for a large fraction of total employment), and that jobless recoveries are observed only in these disappearing routine jobs since job polarization began. We then propose a simple search-and-matching model of the labor market with occupational choice to rationalize these facts. We show how a trend in routine-biased technological change can lead to job polarization that is concentrated in downturns, and recoveries from these recessions that are jobless".

## Tuesday, October 9, 2012

### a view into forecasting participation dynamics

"... expecting a couple of recent trends to continue: lower participation rates for people in the 16 to 24 year age group and an increase in the participation for older age groups".

"...a large cohort is moving
from the 55 to 59 age category
into the 60 to 64 age group....
.....  Even though the participation rate
is rising for the age group, it is lower than for the 45-to-55 age groups ...pushing down over all participation..."

"There are  counter acting changes...
A fairly large group just moved into the 20-to-24 age group, ie moving into higher participation age groups "

"...for men in the 16-to-19  the  P rate declined sharply from 2000 through 2007 "

the sweet spot :

after late school before early retirement
ie mid streamers men 35 -44

" A long term down trend
...short term trend - from 1995 through 2007
... about a 1% decline in the participation rate due to the recession (from 92% to 91%)....
long term trend
participation rate is about what we'd expect."

## Saturday, October 6, 2012

### wage boom product inflation vs monopoly repricing and rent wind fall bubble ups from credit based spec-ing

the gross debt ratio to gross product is no good

look at   household debt to  household earned income

### we are all taxpayers we are all bond holders:

what's wrong with that statement ?

yes you need to model the distribution of both
taxes and bond holdings
over households
to get an idea of winners and losers that a certain policy path might generate

for instance:

we can have low   inflation  with un-pinned lending rates
and thus higher debt service  leading to higher taxes
or
we might have lower real returns and lower taxes
thru high  inflation with pinned lending rates

usually fellahs out to putting you inside a desirable  thought box

leave out some vital capacity of a central bank in a pure  credit money system

but another nice trick is to lump us all together and then look at only one set of consequences

or separate out the widows and orphans
or the sharks of  lower manhattan
or

ya to get your mind's arms all the way around this stuff requires a model
but of course its models that contain the magic tricks too

### pure unitary credit and grant system

the anachronism of an existing stock of finacial capacity
and the resultant
tacit fixed limits of  the value of productive factors in simultaneous operation

the vail of  independent funding fixity over the  perfect elastcity
of a pure credit  ration system  leads to meaningless constraints
on firm formation expansion / contraction

pricing and output decision autonomy
the efficacy of red ink barriers
and  the organization of internal control

### global development in Meade's nut shell

$Y = F (K,L,N,t)$
all factors are   vectors
ie L N K
in heterogeneous physical units ....up to and including unique entities

so

just make sure you correct for nominal wabbles

### simple simon drops his usual load on fiscal activism

"activist fiscal policy got a bad reputation in the decades before 2008"

true

", and for a good reason. "

false

"It is very hard to fine-tune an economy using big or small changes in government spending and taxes."

ever heard of auto stablizing dynamic responses ?