Saturday, October 29, 2016

Labor share story "Over the past 15 years, while profits rose, the decline in labor’s share of national income accelerated, reaching its lowest level ever since World War II. And though this trend has begun to show signs of reversal since mid-2014, labor’s share of income is well below the 2000 year level "

But how big is the swing from peak share to trough share ?
Is it  trills or  hundreds of bills  ?

8%  would mean were above a trill

Spread that evenly among 130 million  job comp  earners ....
Say a million three per 130 souls or

10 k per
Wage rated ?

 7  - 8 dollars plus per hour

Friday, October 28, 2016

Cross border Capital is frisky not fixed ...there is no features of real substance between portfolio and direct investment

""FDI inflows and outflows are highly correlated, even at high frequency and using different methodologies. FDI flows to emerging-market economies appear to respond to the US policy rate, even at high frequency. This suggests that “measured” FDI gross flows are quite different from true FDI flows and may reflect flows through rather than to the country, with stops due in part to (legal) tax optimization. This must be a warning to both researchers and policymakers."

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Diabatic monetary effects .....quantity effects in a monetary economy

That a system of prices et al can change without impacting any real quantities
Is the very edenic fantasy of pro marketeer political economy

However it simply erases the real consequences of any and all
Price et al movements

How convenient !

Just mentioning ....
Back to work !!

 u Pringle  heads !

Market systems analogue to adiabatic approximation in thermodynamics ...fully flexible prices ..and lease wage and interest rates

However in thermodynamics there is no class struggle pay off to agit prop propelled policy moves
Over use of this approximation
is not as much of a temptation
As full flex is for pro marketeers

Market dynamics produce mucho heat daily everywhere and on a mass scale


The George board

The central George tax rate per lot
should be real time

On line

Punch in any lots "lot code "
Here's the story
Past present and forecasted

Ground rents flux and flummox ...better the state take the risks then "citizen clusters "

Why George tax away ground rent ? ...Tax payments are better then debt payments at rational rationing ........more flexible in the end ...more universal every time

A debt Payment ....looks like an obligation to society

A tax payment looks like a contribution to society

Remove the onus and liberate the bonus

Ie rebates on taxes are universal acts by the state
Debt moratoria look like a bail out of the miscreantiat

German grad grinding

"the euro—the currency that Germany shares with 18 other countries—may (or may not) be at the right level for all 19 euro-zone countries as a group, it is too weak (given German wages and production costs) to be consistent with balanced German trade. In July 2014, the IMF estimated that Germany’s inflation-adjusted exchange rate was undervalued by 5-15 percent 
Since then, the euro has fallen by an additional 20 percent relative to the dollar. The comparatively weak euro is an underappreciated benefit to Germany of its participation in the currency union. If Germany were still using the deutschemark, presumably the DM would be much stronger than the euro is today, reducing the cost advantage of German exports substantially."

Okay Germany can't unilaterally lift the euro forex
But it can stimulate domestic spending by borrow and spend transfer payments 
Yes a tax holiday of massive proportions on credit " detained " households 
Detained ?

Fuss budget sanctimony and stoic vanity !!

Here's an obvious plan

  1. Investment in public infrastructure. ........the quality of Germany’s infrastructure—roads, bridges, airports—is declining, and that investment in improving the infrastructure would increase Germany’s growth potential. Meanwhile, Germany can borrow for ten years at less than one-fifth of one percentage point, which, inflation-adjusted, corresponds to a negative real rate of interest. Infrastructure investment would reduce Germany’s surplus by increasing domestic income and spending, while also raising employment and wages
  1. Raising the wages of German workers. German workers deserve a substantial raise, and the cooperation of the government, employers, and unions could give them one. Higher German wages would both speed the adjustment of relative production costs and increase domestic income and consumption. Both would tend to reduce the trade surplus.
  2. Germany could increase domestic spending .......including for example increased tax incentives for private domestic investment; the removal of barriers to new housing construction; reforms in the retail and services sectors; and a review of financial regulations that may bias German banks to invest abroad rather than at home"
The problem ?

These are "Hillary heavy " programs :

Incentives to profiteers ?

Infra structure spending ?

Yikes neo liberal corn porn and con porn 

The massive tax holiday 
Including obviously 
Rebated "consumption taxes " on durable purchases 
Has a liberation feel to it !

Raising wage rates ?

will happen as demand accelerates 

PRC politburo grad grinding ?

  • Posted by Paine
    This overwhelmingly is a PRC story
    For years an implicit ” iron rice bowl. ” phobia
    Among leading cadre has blocked full on
    Society wide transfer systems
    Like we see in northern Europe
    Okay per capita ” value added ” is wildly lower
    But what prevents a generous direct payments system
    for pre job youth and post job age ?
    What prevents moves Cuba has made in health care ?
    Import food and feed not iron ore
    Of course construction is stunted by lot bubbles
    But half a billion still live in a material twilight that exceeds
    the necessary
    The politburo with its caution and niggardliness towards the peasantry
    is failing humanity
    Not just stressing global market economies

    Of course
    The transfer system has to be funded
    But a balance between pay out and tax take
    Is not an immediate concern
    An optimal phase in of higher tax funding can stretch over decades if necessary
    Despite our occidental dogmas on balancing ins and outs
    A socially managed economy has vast inter temporal flexibility
    The only constraints are real not monetary
  • Posted by Paine
    The transfer system has to be funded
    But a balance between pay out and tax take
    Is not an immediate concern
    An optimal phase in of higher tax funding can stretch over decades if necessary
    Despite our occidental dogmas on balancing ins and outs
    A socially managed economy has vast inter temporal flexibility
    The only constraints are real not monetary

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Clap trap gong brashers banal anathema ". Mr Xi seems bent on strengthening his party and keeping himself in power, not on making China the wealthier and more open society that its people crave "

Strengthening the party's grip on power
suggests nothing
More perhaps then a shrewd abhorrence
of the proto open system  pluralistic hodgepodge
that in the event
proves to be nothing so much as
 a well positioned privateer exploiters
    " Supine paradise "

Let us examine  comrade Li's main  enemies

Never never forget :"Lucas (1987) showed that, in an RBC model, the welfare costs of business cycles are less than one tenth of one percent of steady state consumption. In DSGE models with added frictions, the welfare costs of business cycle fluctuations are also small [Gal ́ı et al. (2007).]"

So how can we socialize the exploiter output enhancing principal

To abolish the Independent profit driven Firm as the foundation form of social production

Why not simply divide the proceeds of joint productions among the associated producers ?
Why no co op hegemony in market mediated social production ?

What if that reduces joint output
What if a surplus scooping entity actually increases total output ?

If the associated producers can lose the entire surplus thru failure to reach output goals
The resultant output may increase enough to support a symbiotic exploiter class

Yikes !

And it's an air tight theorem of Bengal hail storm and company that this often will be the case
Often enough to find profiteer outfits out performing co ops !

In the open market state of the social jungle 

To abolish the Independent profit driven Firm as the foundation form of social production

Reviewing holstroms efficiency argument
For a separate principal to capture the residue from the proceeds of marketed products
From associated producers

The state could be the sole " exploiter "

Tax farming existed for centuries ?

Analogy ?

Tax farming is the principle of assigning the responsibility for tax revenue collection to private citizens or groups.  Tax farming occurred in Eygpt, Rome, Great Britain, and Greece.  The principle was considered very effective for tax revenue collection  but suffered from a tendency of the tax-farmers to abuse the taxpayer for collection.  Only when the system included checks and balances for the tax-farmer as well as the taxpayer did the system seem truly successful.  Thepublicani of Rome were known as some of the most abusive tax-farmers.   Tax farmers bid at auction for the contract rights to collect a particular tax and was held responsible for any loss.   In Eygpt taxes for collected very effectively without tax farmers until the Greek Ptolemies set up rule.  Under the Ptolemies the tax-farmer watched over the taxpayer and the government tax collector to prevent the scribes from imposing lighter taxes on the poor and unfortunate.
Return to History Page
The following article is from The Great Soviet Encyclopedia (1979). It might be outdated or. Ideologically biased.

Tax Farming

system for collecting taxes and other state revenues from the population. Under this system, the statetransfers the right of collection to private individuals called tax farmers in exchange for a certain fee.Tax farmers accumulated great wealth since the taxes and charges they collected exceeded by two orthree times the amount deposited in the treasury.
Tax farming is characteristic of precapitalist systems in which a natural economy is predominant, creditis not developed, the state is in financial difficulties, and communications are poor. Three forms of taxfarming existed: (1) general, which encompassed a country or the entire tax system; (2) regional, whichencompassed a single city or region; and (3) special, which dealt with individual taxes, such ascustoms duties or revenues from the liquor monopoly.
Tax farming first became widespread in Iran in the sixth century B.Cand in Greece and Rome in thefourth century B.C. In the Middle Ages, it was widespread in France from the 13th century and was alsopracticed widely in Holland, Spain, and England. It was one of the most important sources for theprimitive accumulation of capital. As capitalism developed, tax farming was preserved in a distinctiveform in 20th-century Italy, where private and savings banks collected certain taxes. In the late 19th andearly 20th centuries, forms of tax farming were used for collecting tax arrears in the USA. Tax farmingwas widely used in the Ottoman Empire beginning in the late 16th or early 17th century; it wasabolished in 1925. It was also widely practiced in Iran from approximately the tenth century to the1930’s and in India from the 13th or 14th century to the 19th century.
In Russia, tax farming (otkupwas introduced in the late 15th or early 16th century. It was usedespecially for customs duties and salt and liquor revenues. Tax farming to collect liquor revenues wasintroduced in the 16th century and assumed the greatest importance during the 18th and 19thcenturies. Treasury revenues from the liquor tax constituted more than 40 percent of the income fromall taxes in the state budget. In 1863 tax farming to collect liquor revenues was abolished and replacedby an excise tax.

Fooling enough of the people enough of the time capitalism and democracy co exist

A crisis in governance seems inevitable when an exploiting minority allows an exploited majority to vote on the making of social regularities institutions etc

The Cohesion of given social arrangements faces constant stress

Exploitation can not avoid demonstrating more or less nakedly
it's dark  down side
  to varying portions of the exploited
Daily everywhere and well
Almost hourly generating local crises

These emergent moments of stark down side
revealed by the on going internecine  conflict between exploiter and exploited
Come and go
Here and there
What about social metabolism
  under  open democracy
 so effectively diffuses the blow back come day zero
Come Election Day
that a coherent anti exploiter ticket
Never emerges with an adequate  governing majority
To abolish the exploitation systems in place on day zero

Look to ten thousand vertices of darkness delusion and deviltry  !

Monday, October 24, 2016

Not market v state but market v firm

The firm as alternative to the market
This is the expository task

It's the existence of firms not the intervening state
that definitively refutes market purism

Greenwald stiglitz needs to be reconfigured as the reason firms not states exist

Cousin joe likes to call it the " necessity for hierarchy " theorem and this gets the essence right

Contractor v employee

Bundles of mutually reinforcing incentives

Lead to these two complex set of agent principal  relationships

Socialize the surplus v squeeze the distribution pattern

More equal outcomes ?

Socialize the surplus
Let compensation evolve as "it must "

Society is the only principal and all members are its agents ! .....Societies members are societies agents institutional arrangements are instrumentalities

For profit firms scooping residual revenues after all working agents are compensated
May improve outcomes
But surely other institutional arrangements with other dispensations of residuals
are possibly " better "

What is real is rational ...if it's self sustaining ...and if
a preferable arrangement is non existent
Can we improve on the for profit firm
Can we design a better instrumentality
where the FPF is now used as the preferred  instrumentality
For the decentralized development of societies productive capacities ?

Societies members are societies agents institutional arrangements are instrumentalities

For profit firms scooping residual revenues after all working agents are compensated
May improve outcomes
But surely other institutional arrangements with other dispensations of residuals
are possibly " better "

What is real is rational ...if it's self sustaining ...and if
a preferable arrangement is non existent
Can we improve on the for profit firm
Can we design a better instrumentality
where the FPF is now used as the preferred  instrumentality
For the decentralized development of societies productive capacities ?

The KGL class struggle game

Kalecki Godwin Lancaster class struggle game

KGL game
Two class conflictionary -  co operative  strategic game

Organizing social production into capitalistic firms and tax farming

Hold stroke 's Nobel work

"Agency costs and innovation

Holmström’s work is brilliant in how it clarifies many puzzles that are tricky to understand without thinking about incentives within a firm. For example, why would a risk-neutral firm not work enough on high-variance moonshot-type R&D projects? This is a question Holmström asks in his 1989 paper. Four reasons:
  • First, in Holmström and Milgrom’s 1987 linear contracts paper, optimal risk-sharing leads to more distortion by agents the riskier the project being incentivised, so firms may choose lower expected value projects even if they themselves are risk-neutral.
  • Second, firms build reputation in capital markets just as workers do with career concerns, and high-variance output projects are more costly in terms of the future value of that reputation when the interest rate on capital is lower (for example, when firms are large and old).
  • Third, when R&D workers can potentially pursue many different projects, multitasking suggests that workers should be given small and very specific tasks so as to lessen the potential for bonus payments to shift worker effort across projects. Smaller firms with fewer resources may naturally have limits on the types of research a worker could pursue, which surprisingly makes it easier to provide strong incentives for research effort on the remaining possible projects.
  • Fourth, multitasking suggests that agent’s tasks should be limited, and that high-variance tasks should be assigned to the same agent, which provides a role for decentralising research into large firms providing incremental, safe research, and small firms performing high-variance research. A deep understanding of how these types of internal incentives aggregate into explanations for why firms appear the way they do can best be achieved by a thorough reading of Holmström and Milgrom’s beautiful 1987 paper, “The Firm as an Incentive System”."

The firm is an incentive system

Markets as Marx tells us ..tell us next nothing
 about the how's where's and when's of  capitalist exploitation

We must look into the specifics of th existing social organization of production itself

Well much else
 --besides and about exploitation--  is revealed by these. Specifics eh !
Much else
about outcomes of production
require a careful look at the social organization of productive work

Enter the  capitalist firm !

Enter also the circular but pragmatical " rationale "
for existing modes f exploitation itself !

Easier to reduce high wealth or wild income inequality ?

Wealth if visible and measurable
can be taxed and taxed on a regular basis

Of course  this post facto approach does not
Tax the reward to socially advantageous  activity
 from mere rents and  or wind fall incomes

Hence both and systems should be preferred !

Wealth taxation is the last resort
Crude but steady

Sunday, October 23, 2016

More on twin workers at different firms and wage rate dispersion

" What does the empirical evidence tell us? Two stylised facts have been corroborated by empirical studies in a multitude of countries and economic conditions. The first is that larger firms pay higher wages (Oi and Idson 1999). The second is that more profitable firms share some of these profits with their workers in the form of higher wages (see Card et al. 2014 and references therein). The two set of facts are obviously interconnected, as it is often the case that larger firms make higher profits. The empirical evidence is very robust and shows that larger and more profitable firms pay higher wages, not only because they attract more skilled workers. Identical workers are paid better if they work for these firms. A question that has proven much more difficult to answer is what’s behind these facts. Is it that larger firms or more profitable firms pay higher wages because they are more productive? Or is it instead that they have an advantage because consumers have a preference for their products, and the extra profits generated by this demand are shared with workers?""But while firms’ productivity matters for wages, they matter less than one might have initially thought. From one year to the next, a typical change in firm level productivity explains some 25% of the observed change in workers’ wages. If you allow for a longer time span, the response increases, and TFP changes or ‘shocks’ can explain up to 50% of the observed wage changes. These results suggest that there is a lot of space for other shocks to affect wages. New consumer tastes and other demand shocks for each firm’s products are primary candidates. Recent evidence suggests that firms’ demand shocks matters more than firms’ TFP shocks for other firm-level outcomes, including firms’ closure (Foster et al. 2008), firms’ growth (Foster et al. 2016, Pozzi and Schivardi forthcoming) and hiring and firing policies (Carlsson et al. 2014)."

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Kwak "Now, I don’t consider either Bill Clinton or Barack Obama a progressive, but there is disagreement about what that term means. So let’s just say this: One reason Democrats have failed to win the hearts and minds of large segments of the working class is that our actual policies, when we have been in power, have not served them that well. Yes, our policies were generally better than what Republicans would have done; and yes, there were some that helped the poor, such as Medicaid expansion and the Obamacare subsidies. But on balance, the Democrats have done little to reverse the tide of the Reagan Revolution. In the future, if we want to win back the whole working class, we’ll need both better policies and a better vision than “we’re not as bad as the Republicans.”

Dani rips the global MNC run trade " elites "

The Walloon mouse: ...Instead of decrying people's stupidity and ignorance in rejecting trade deals, we should try to understand why such deals lost legitimacy in the first place. I'd put a large part of the blame on mainstream elites and trade technocrats who pooh-poohed ordinary people's concerns with earlier trade agreements. 
The elites minimized distributional concerns, though they turned out to be significant for the most directly affected communities. They oversold aggregate gains from trade deals, though they have been smallish since at least NAFTA. They said sovereignty would not be diminished though it clearly was in some instances. They claimed democratic principles would not be undermined, though they are in places. They said there'd be no social dumping though there clearly is at times. They advertised trade deals (and continue to do so) as "free trade" agreements, even though Adam Smith and David Ricardo would turn over in their graves if they read, say, any of the TPP chapters.
And because they failed to provide those distinctions and caveats now trade gets tarred with all kinds of ills even when it's not deserved. If the demagogues and nativists making nonsensical claims about trade are getting a hearing, it is trade's cheerleaders that deserve some of the blame.
One more thing. The opposition to trade deals is no longer solely about income losses. The standard remedy of compensation won't be enough -- even if carried out. It's about fairness, loss of control, and elites' loss of credibility. It hurts the cause of trade to pretend otherwise." 

Many nations state : Nationalism and democracy in a multi national state without a hegemonic majoritarian nation

We enter the struggle among nations

The euro zone and the US  are different
Our nations are largely dispersed among the member states
In the EZ compact majorities create strains at the state level between states
Here we long since passed that stage if ever it existed outside the black belt south
And the annexed  region formally known as   "north Mexico "

Yes the EZ can just fall to pieces
But our federation of sympatric nations
Nope !

Donald trump and the welfare of each of several sympatric "nations "

Call em nations
Ie vaguely genetically inter related " peoples"

Like the Cherokee nation or Cheyenne nation or Zulu nation
Extend to say the Han nation or a problematic like the " white nation "
Or " black nation" of these United States

What might we mean by the collective welfare of these historically morphic
Largely emergent
   self determining constructs ?
If we find any coherency
Adequate to validate these constructs

Is it fair to assume
there are negative - zero sum
or if positive sum
 wildly asymmetric
to  possible policy paths
For  different sympatric  same state  nations ?

If so then Trumpism is a reasonable outcome

And the fed had to make the snail track happen more by konckerlakota

"The Fed was surprised by two aspects of the recovery. The first is that it provided, and continues to provide, a lot more monetary stimulus -- in the form of low interest rates and asset purchases -- than it expected back in 2010. "

The un stimulated track would have been worse !

"As Fed vice-chair Stan Fischer described in a recent speech, economists have yet to understand why,"

 but the fed got it's predicted outcome path 

" The second surprise is much more troubling: Growth over the past six or seven years has been much slower than the Fed expected. "

"It’s important to emphasize that the slow growth doesn’t mean that monetary policy hasn't worked: Like I said, the Fed has met its inflation and unemployment objectives. "

"What's strange is that success in achieving those goals has been associated with such slow growth."

Fed got what it wanted..actual snail track was predicted

"Let's start with what the Fed got right. Internal documents from 2009 and 2010 (now public) reveal that policy makers were largely aiming to return the unemployment rate to 5 percent by the end of 2015 (from nearly 10 percent at the end of 2010). "

" The Fed’s staff expected that this would be associated with inflation rising slowly from near 1 percent to only about 1.5 percent by the end of 2015 "

"..,,. In terms of unemployment and inflation, 
the Fed basically got the recovery it wanted: "

Why did the fed prefer a snailer ? 

And why is this the settling in level ?

" The unemployment rate has been close to 5 percent for the past year, and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflationary pressures is at 1.7 percent."

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Is this the way ?

PRC tax to transfer system looks too much like social democrat  "camels "

Where's the race horse model

A capitalist won't give you anything unless you more then deserve it

Job ethic shines thru the deserts ordering v line cutting distinction method used by white working class males


Free universal this and that conflicts with earned benefits

means received thru job market mediations

What is produced determines the reward what hours worked
and wages earned at a market job
Not a bureaucrat's arbitrary determinations of " merit "
  Or level of victim hood

Public white collar job holders are the enemy of the white male nurse ratchet and sister teacher !!!

Black males have prison guards
White males have state  empowered ladies
Meter maids teachers and tax office ghouls

The Medical and credential complex

A middle class woman in a gate keeper capacity
looking down at you
Yup Hillary !

Post factory wage class and the white male

"Trump ....just doesn’t speak about service work, period. 
When he talks, it is about factory work, and it gets more energy from nostalgia than from economic analysis."

"Manufacturing is unlikely to come back as a high-employment industry. "

"The future will involve more service work, and ways to make service function as the foundation of a middle-class life are essential. "

"Yet that isn’t addressed by Trump at all."
"An obvious way to alleviate racial tensions is for workers to join together across races in unions, where solidarity and collective bargaining bind people together in a shared enterprise. "
"Yet, as people like Tamara Drauthave written, worker activism is increasingly in fields dominated by women and people of color."

" Finding ways to boost and amplify this activism is essential for the left."

" It is possible that Trump’s white working class could find solidarity with these efforts, but it is just as likely they would be further alienated."

What's weird in this list?

"...any sufficiently important left project going forward is going to involve at least four things: 

1 a more redistributive state, 

2 a more aggressive state intervention in the economy, 

3 a weakening of the centrality of waged labor, 

4 a broadening, service-based form of worker activism."

The conclusion ?

" These four points, essential as they are, will likely further drive Trump’s white working-class supporters away from the left, rather than unite them."

Okay point 4 has me head scratching 

But look at point 3 
" Any left agenda going forward.....will have to weaken the centrality and power of waged employment as the central arbiter of value of society. This takes a variety of approaches in the current debates: there are hard theorists of “post-work imaginations” like Peter Frase and Kathi Weeks. There
 are those who want to see non-waged work in the home, the “silent partner” of capitalism as Heather Boushey writes, protected and compensated as such. Then there are those like Andy Stern who think our ability to produce jobs will decline with future automation, and non-work security is just getting ahead of the curve..... Trump’s voters would pursue these options. As Alec MacGillis wrote in Who Turned My Blue State Red?, “these communities who are voting Republican in larger proportions are those who are a notch or two up the economic ladder.” And for them, the defining feature is work; those who don’t work are the problem, and the government is the problem for letting them do so. This is tied to redistribution but also goes beyond it. One thing that Hochschild finds is that her subjects use capitalism as an ordering of their lives, part of their system that dictates who is where in line.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

The over all level path of any equity market can be controlled by the state ...while letting individual equites to move relative to each other

Let the public buy stock ?

Why not
The information about relative firm performance will get gathered for no change to the peoples state

Why is running a stock market worse then a lottery ?

Securities are a sublation of corporate capitalism
Go for it !

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

If we want to really reduce inequality ..We need to increase inter firm competition

That is a decoy eh mates !

System wide job market failure
Explains 85 % of the increase in wage inequality

The invisible hand don't work

So bring on the state ?

Eric the rose garden sez "hey w can't land this system we can only crash it !!!"

Eric the rose garden promises the inevitable FED malpractice

Because firms expect a bungled landing 

They react and that pull back fulfills it's own mass prophecy 

Here's Eric 

"So you don’t see instances where we go from
 4.2 percent to 4.7 or 5 percent 
and level off. "

"What you actually see ?"

"when we start tightening 
we end up with a recession." ,!!

The cycle then repeats and repeats 

Here's the story line 

"During periods when the unemployment rate has gotten to the low 4s, we haven’t stayed there for a real long time. "

" And that’s because we do start seeing wages picking up, and we do see prices start picking up, and we do see asset prices picking up. "

" In that environment we start to tighten and when we tighten we’re not so good at getting it exactly right."

Here's where he gets to be fun 
"The problem is the dynamics of how firms and individuals start thinking about the tightening process."

"  Those dynamics make it very hard to calibrate the monetary policy process."

"People understand tightening. But convincing them of how much you’re going to 
tighten and that you’re going to hit it exactly right "

".....given that you haven’t hit it exactly right in the past, it’s pretty tough to convince people of that. "

"Not surprisingly, they start worrying "

“Well, they’re starting to tighten, they may tighten too much. What do I do? I start pulling in in terms of my own spending.”

Or is it more like

Okay here comes the clobber bop 

" Firms start pulling in"

 “We want to be prepared in case they don’t get this quite right.” 

Those kinds of actions 
— which are very hard to predict, 
and individually everyone behaves a little differently — 

"in aggregate, cause a problem 
where we sometimes slow down the economy more than we intend."

Monday, October 17, 2016

Warning warning poison meme stream "t rising inequality in pay among employers has become the major factor in the trend rise in inequality. "

This is a fine way to throw the hunting packs off the trail

" The big surprise in recent decades is that the competitive forces that limit pay differentials
 failed to do so. "

"Forty or so years of rising inequality would seem time enough for the centripetal forces of competition to pull earnings toward market-clearing levels. But that hasn’t happened. "

" The labor market has been dominated by economic forces 
that pull the wages of firms further apart from each other, 
  motivating our analysis of the role of employers in increasing inequality.”

" 86 % " of the increase in inequality over all
Comes within comparable job class  types 

It takes a Better firm to earn a Better  wage  rate 
"In other words, a lot of inequality is about where you work. The rise in equality is linked to differences across what firms are paying employees who appear to be similarly qualified. As Freeman acknowledges, this argument that this is a quantitatively important cause of rising inequality isn't ironclad at this point, but it's highly suggested in several ways of looking at the data: Freeman  writes:
"This implies that 86% ... of the trend increase in inequality [from 1977-2009] occurs among people with measurably the same skills, whereas just 14% of the trend increase comes from changes in earnings among workers with different skills. The big surprise in the exhibit is that the inequality of average earnings among establishments increased by the same 0.147 points [measuring variance of natural log of earnings, a standard measure of inequality of earnings] as did inequality among workers with the same characteristics. This suggests that all of the increase in inequality among similar workers comes from the increase in earnings at their workplaces." 

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Mistress Janet and the great turning point

"Hysteresis effects--and the possibility they might be reversed--could have important implications for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy. 

For example, hysteresis would seem to make it even more important for policymakers to act quickly and aggressively in response to a recession, because doing so would help to reduce the depth and persistence of the downturn, thereby limiting the supply-side damage that might otherwise ensue. 

In addition, if strong economic conditions can partially reverse supply-side damage after it has occurred, then policymakers may want to aim at being more accommodative during recoveries than would be called for under the traditional view that supply is largely independent of demand."

"we have a lot more to learn about the ways in which changes in underwriting standards and other determinants of credit availability interact with interest rates to affect such things as consumer spending, housing demand and home prices, business investment (especially for small firms), and the formation of new firms."

"Broadly speaking, monetary policy actions in one country spill over to other economies through three main channels:

 changes in exchange rates; 

changes in domestic demand, which alter the economy's imports; 

and changes in domestic financial conditions-
-such as interest rates and asset prices--
that, through portfolio balance and other channels,
 affect financial conditions abroad. Research by Federal Reserve staff suggests that, all told, U.S. monetary policy spillovers to other economies are positive--that is, policies designed to provide stimulus to the U.S. economy also boost activity abroad, as negative effects of dollar depreciation are offset by positive effects of higher U.S. imports and easier foreign financial conditions.26 However, this issue is far from settled, as are a host of other related questions, including the following: Do U.S. monetary policy actions affect advanced and emerging market countries differently? Do conventional and unconventional monetary policies spill over to other countries differently? And to what extent are U.S. interest rates and financial conditions influenced by easing measures abroad?"

Real crypto rubinites don't vamp

That's  up there on the shelf market " good for a horse laff "
Along with

"You can't cheat  an honest workman  "

Big time infra structure build outs funded by uncle ?

When it comes to right sizing the state
We start with The big three venues
distinction between

1 Public investment goods

2  Public consumption goods

3 transfer payments to households

Can a neo Rubinite or better
Crypto Rubinite agenda actually
Pull any of these levers ( robustly )
this coming winter of discontent ?

3 looks like a fast pass

2 ?

Beyond crusading nope


1 !

Enter the build out ?

What will we see
If anything

Getting to love the global stag might be easier

Wall Street approved Macro nautic policy impasse


Fiscal Deficits need to be contained

Wage push output price inflations need to GE contained


Stagnation with or with out
A motivating Wall Street aim


When the trade imbalance motive for a stag driven rebalance or at least slow down ran its course
And the Two track recovery  ( fast south slow north )
went off the rails somewhere between  the Taiwan straights and the agean sea

Brighter bulbs on Wall Street realized
Hey !
We now have
A global system moving in a decidedly and perhaps non transiently
 sub acceptable fashion

Enter the second Clinton dynastic moment

Brad does Taylorism

"The consensus for interest rate policy as an aspect of monetary policy back in 2007 was some version of Taylor’s (1993, 1999) interest rate rule (cf. also: Henderson and McKibbin (1993)): the first in time of Taylor’s two contributions to our thinking about stabilization policy that have shaped economists’ thinking about the areas that are the subject of this essay more powerfully, perhaps, than contributions by any other living economist. The basic idea is that good monetary policy should follow—and that in some eras in which policy has been relatively successful monetary policy has followed—closely upon a simple interest rate feedback rule according to which the Federal Reserve sets the short-term safe real interest rate in responses to differences of actual inflation from its target rate, differences of actual GDP from potential, (perhaps) the level the underlying Wicksellian neutral real interest rate, and the level of the inflation target (Higgins (2016))."

Brad wording kicks over a thought bucket now it's liberated

"The continued existence of a substantial equity return premium implied that there was a substantial market failure involved in the difficulty financial markets had in mobilizing anything like society’s total potential risk bearing capacity"

Yes !

Capitalist markets fail to fully socialize " risk "
Capitalist   Society bares too little risk !

Enter he unitary dome of decentralized funding and holding

The Rubinite ventured solution

"Largely unregulated financialization and experimentation 
might well produce 
substantial benefits in making the mobilization of such risk bearing capacity easier. "

Bolstered this boast by this poppy cock

" there were few risks generated by such benign neglect of systemic financial risk 
because of the power of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tools"

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Dani R :"The nation-state seems intent on reasserting itself."

Populist reactionary movements get the credit among
Paleo  liberals neo liberals straight lace social liberals etc

Populism v liberal democracy

Dani for one ad

Partners with the limited liability border crossing Satans

"The real intent of these " pacts " ?

"....impede health, environmental, safety, and, ifinancial regulations 
.......... Companies can sue governments for full compensation 
   for any reduction in their future expected profits resulting from regulatory changes."

Friday, October 14, 2016

What makes reserves special Ricky Reis

Reserves really are special

"The power of QE comes from interest-paying reserves being a special financial asset with four distinct properties: 
  1. Reserves are held exclusively by banks. Only they can hold these deposits at the central bank. Therefore, the central bank can make sure that the shield against default that reserves provides leads to an automatic recapitalisation of the banking sector after public default.
  2. Reserves are supplied exclusively by the central bank. Therefore, it can freely set the interest that must be paid on them. The joint control by the central bank of the quantity of reserves, and the remuneration of these reserves, give it the power to control the time path of inflation.
  3. Reserves are default-free. In nominal terms they always pay in full so, as long as the central bank remains solvent, they are always honoured. Therefore, they are a safe asset for the financial sector.
  4. Reserves are the unit of account in the economy. Therefore, their nominal value never changes, but their real value falls if there is sudden inflation."

What hysterisis are we talking about. ..rate independent


"Systems with rate-independent hysteresis have a persistent memory of the past that remains after the transients have died out.  

The future development of such a system depends on the history of states visited, but does not fade as the events recede into the past

. If an input variable X(t) cycles from X0 to X1 and back again, the output Y(t) may be Y0 initially but a different value Y2 upon return.
 The values of Y(t) depend on the path of values that X(t) passes through but not on the speed at which it traverses the path
.Many authors restrict the term hysteresis to mean only rate-independent "