Monday, March 11, 2013

the cloud nine channels




sadowski reader:


"1) Given that there are only two ways policy makers can impact aggregate demand, fiscal and monetary policy, and that government consumption and investment has been an enourmous drag on the recovery, it's safe to say whatever recovery we have is due entirely to monetary policy.
2) Since net exports have been a net drag it's also safe to say that the Exchange Rate Channel has not contributed to the recovery. This is not surprising given the dollar's relative strength compared to many of the U.S.'s trading partners, as well as relatively weak demand abroad.
3) Non-residential investment is dominating the recovery. But since so many channels impact it, it's difficult to say without further analysis what the relative contribution of each of the channels is.
4) Consumption's contribution to the recovery is also sizable, and this implies that the Wealth Effects Channel is probably the most important source of the recovery so far. This should not be too surprising in that household sector net assets have risen from about $48.7 trillion in 2009Q1 to $66.1 trillion in 2012Q4 according to the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/
5) Durable goods have also contributed strongly to the recovery and this implies that the Traditional Interest Rate Effects Channel and the Household Liquidity Effects Channels have been important. (Note that the Household Liquidity Effects Channel is also asset price driven.)
6) Residential Investment has contributed little, which tends to speak against the Bank Lending Channel's importance during this recovery, since mortgage lending accounts for three quarters of household sector debt. This shouldn't be too surprising given that the household sector's outstanding mortgage balance has shrunk by $623.1 billion since 2009Q2."

we are in fiscal budget balance... if we were at so defined "full employment "

Saturday, March 9, 2013

Statistical price dynamics

Get down to the level of transactions and the model paths dissolve into chaos All analytic results become the result of simplification itself Ie simplification does reveal Concise relationships it creates them

Deficit ? not if you compare it to the correct standard

Monday, March 4, 2013

anything is possible...inside the market systems bermuda triangle

agents three worker producers/ profiteer operators / potential out put purchasers this triangle can yield black from white white from black as an impulse hits the triad and they start mutually adjusting to the impluse and its knock ons if we stay right there at the center of the triangle from on set to next impluse and beyond the maze of possible and variousness of specific outcomes only increase now think of a large Ns worth of these interlocked triangles !