Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Pk uses hoteling to clever if problematic effect

It involves the use of the freighted assumption any commodity has a price that rends it too expensive to use

Take gold as he does
But beter oil

Gold has value as a store of wealthnin a way that oil doesn't

So I'll use oil

The planet has n extractable units of oil it is exhaustible
The optimal price path exhausts this total stock and at least equals
the string of short term
Carying charges
That famously include the return on cash investment

Liquidate your supply at less then maximum rate if tomorrows price is not high enough to at least equal the return on a cash investment selling it could effectuate

You get the shadow of looming complexity here one needs to rapidly avert the eye from eh ?

But it's enough to suggest such a commodity when faced with lower returns on cash investments leads to higher rational storage rates of the commodity
And thus higher spot prices and if demand has any elasticity

And it better have

Then the time frame to exhaustion is extended