Thursday, May 16, 2013

brad pugsley forgets NAIRU taboo line

he's thrashing  smug uber rodent
micky kinkajou

" Kinsley claims that: "the lessons of Paul Volcker" are that "the Great Stagflation of the late 1970s" was caused by fiscal "Stimulus" which "is strong medicine--an addictive drug--and you don’t give the patient more than you absolutely have to."

a fairly common narrative actually
the usual line about the original sin
prior to the reagan eviction of the job class from the eden
of post war
            "fairly strong job markets "


"Was he not alive in the late 1970s and early 1980s? "
asks bradkins

"Does he not remember that the large fiscal deficits of the 1970s and 1980s
 came not during the Great Stagflation of the 1970s, but in the 1980s
 after the Volcker Disinflation?"

 its YOU  dear brad that isn't singing here
 from  the dominant hymn book


at thomatose:
anne said...
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/16/the-smithkleinkalecki-theory-of-austerity/
May 16, 2013
The Smith/Klein/Kalecki Theory of Austerity
By Paul Krugman
Noah Smith recently offered an interesting take * on the real reasons austerity garners so much support from elites, no matter hw badly it fails in practice. Elites, he argues, see economic distress as an opportunity to push through “reforms” — which basically means changes they want, which may or may not actually serve the interest of promoting economic growth — and oppose any policies that might mitigate crisis without the need for these changes:
"I conjecture that 'austerians' are concerned that anti-recessionary macro policy will allow a country to 'muddle through' a crisis without improving its institutions. In other words, they fear that a successful stimulus would be wasting a good crisis....
"If people really do think that the danger of stimulus is not that it might fail, but that it might succeed, they need to say so. Only then, I believe, can we have an optimal public discussion about costs and benefits."
As he notes, the day after he wrote that post, Steven Pearlstein of the Washington Post made exactly that argument for austerity.
What Smith didn’t note, somewhat surprisingly, is that his argument is very close to Naomi Klein’s "Shock Doctrine," with its argument that elites systematically exploit disasters to push through neoliberal policies even if these policies are essentially irrelevant to the sources of disaster. I have to admit that I was predisposed to dislike Klein’s book when it came out, probably out of professional turf-defending and whatever — but her thesis really helps explain a lot about what’s going on in Europe in particular.
And the lineage goes back even further. Two and a half years ago Mike Konczal ** reminded us of a classic 1943 (!) essay by Michal Kalecki, who suggested that business interests hate Keynesian economics because they fear that it might work — and in so doing mean that politicians would no longer have to abase themselves before businessmen in the name of preserving confidence. This is pretty close to the argument that we must have austerity, because stimulus might remove the incentive for structural reform that, you guessed it, gives businesses the confidence they need before deigning to produce recovery.
And sure enough, in my inbox this morning I see a piece more or less deploring the early signs of success for Abenomics: Abenomics is working — but it had better not work too well. Because if it works, how will we get structural reform?
So one way to see the drive for austerity is as an application of a sort of reverse Hippocratic oath: “First, do nothing to mitigate harm”. For the people must suffer if neoliberal reforms are to prosper.
* http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/why-do-people-support-austerity.html
** http://rortybomb.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/kristol-kalecki-and-a-19th-century-economist-defending-patriarchy-all-on-political-macroeconomics/

anne said in reply to anne...
What Smith didn’t note, somewhat surprisingly, is that his argument is very close to Naomi Klein’s "Shock Doctrine," with its argument that elites systematically exploit disasters to push through neoliberal policies even if these policies are essentially irrelevant to the sources of disaster. I have to admit that I was predisposed to dislike Klein’s book when it came out, probably out of professional turf-defending and whatever — but her thesis really helps explain a lot about what’s going on in Europe in particular....
-- Paul Krugman

Darryl FKA Ron said in reply to anne...
elites systematically exploit disasters to push through neoliberal policies even if these policies are essentially irrelevant to the sources of disaster.
[I would pare it down further. These (neoliberal) policies are the sources of disaster.]

Peter K. said in reply to Darryl FKA Ron...
Yeah but what are Naomi Klein's examples? Iraq? South America? They don't hold up. DeLong is right and Krugman is wrong here.
Klein's thesis is that the neoliberal elite intentionally blew the housing bubble and created the unregulated shadow banking system for the SOLE PURPOSE AND REASON of creating an epic financial crisis and deep downturn so that they would be able to cut Medicare and Social Security.
The elite aren't that smart or scheming.

anne said in reply to Peter K....
Being profane and dealing in calumny is never right, as for South America we should find Naomi Klein repeatedly right as South America was historically turned to a United States corporate accessory.

Darryl FKA Ron said in reply to Peter K....
The elite aren't that smart or scheming.
[Well they are not that smart anyway, but exploitive they have covered.]

anne said in reply to anne...
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/04/hoisted-from-the-archives-tyler-cowen-thinks-naomi-klein-believes-her-own-bulls------grasping-reality-with-tractor-beams.html
April 8, 2010
Hoisted from the Archives: Tyler Cowen Thinks Naomi Klein Believes Her Own Bulls---
He reads her book. He doesn't think it meets minimum intellectual standards. I think he is right: now I can borrow Tyler's ideas and have an informed view.... *
"If nothing else, Ms. Klein's book provides an interesting litmus test as to who is willing to condemn its shoddy reasoning. In the New York Times, Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz defended the book: 'Klein is not an academic and cannot be judged as one.' So nonacademics get a pass on sloppy thinking, false 'facts,' and emotional appeals? In making economic claims, Ms. Klein demands to be judged by economists' standards — or at the very least, standards of simple truth or falsehood. Mr. Stiglitz continued: 'There are many places in her book where she oversimplifies. But Friedman and the other shock therapists were also guilty of oversimplification.' Have we come to citing the failures of one point of view to excuse the mistakes of another?"
* http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2007/10/tyler-cowen-thi.html
October 4, 2007
-- Brad DeLong

Darryl FKA Ron said in reply to anne...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Bradford_DeLong
...DeLong is both a liberal in the modern American political sense and a free trade neo-liberal. He has cited Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes, Andrei Shleifer, Milton Friedman, and Lawrence Summers (with whom he has co-authored numerous papers) as the economists who have had the greatest influence on his views...

Darryl FKA Ron said in reply to Darryl FKA Ron...
Where is Paine? You can never find a socialist when you need one :<)

anne said in reply to Darryl FKA Ron...
Paine has repeatedly suggested reading Michal Kalecki, beating Paul Krugman to the suggestion:
http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2010/kalecki220510.html
1942
Political Aspects of Full Employment
By Michal Kalecki
1. A solid majority of economists is now of the opinion that, even in a capitalist system, full employment may be secured by a government spending programme, provided there is in existence adequate plan to employ all existing labour power, and provided adequate supplies of necessary foreign raw-materials may be obtained in exchange for exports.
If the government undertakes public investment (e.g. builds schools, hospitals, and highways) or subsidizes mass consumption (by family allowances, reduction of indirect taxation, or subsidies to keep down the prices of necessities), and if, moreover, this expenditure is financed by borrowing and not by taxation (which could affect adversely private investment and consumption), the effective demand for goods and services may be increased up to a point where full employment is achieved. Such government expenditure increases employment, be it noted, not only directly but indirectly as well, since the higher incomes caused by it result in a secondary increase in demand for consumer and investment goods....

anne said in reply to Darryl FKA Ron...
Paine has repeatedly suggested reading Michal Kalecki, beating Paul Krugman to the suggestion:
1942
Political Aspects of Full Employment
By Michal Kalecki
1. A solid majority of economists is now of the opinion that, even in a capitalist system, full employment may be secured by a government spending programme, provided there is in existence adequate plan to employ all existing labour power, and provided adequate supplies of necessary foreign raw-materials may be obtained in exchange for exports.
If the government undertakes public investment (e.g. builds schools, hospitals, and highways) or subsidizes mass consumption (by family allowances, reduction of indirect taxation, or subsidies to keep down the prices of necessities), and if, moreover, this expenditure is financed by borrowing and not by taxation (which could affect adversely private investment and consumption), the effective demand for goods and services may be increased up to a point where full employment is achieved. Such government expenditure increases employment, be it noted, not only directly but indirectly as well, since the higher incomes caused by it result in a secondary increase in demand for consumer and investment goods....

Darryl FKA Ron said in reply to anne...
Yeah, I have noticed and am with him on that and most things.
I have gadflied Paine on political framing and full disclosure of uncertainty and long term intentions of inflation policy, but not on employment policy itself. Now Abba Lerner is a leap that I have just not had the time to consider well, but it is also so far off from any politically reachable solution that there is no hurry. At first blush, Abba Lerner's funtional finance is highly appealing if only...

Peter K. said in reply to Darryl FKA Ron...
Who is the imitator who is sullying his good name and reputation?

Darryl FKA Ron said in reply to Peter K....
Only Doc Thoma could answer that one.
I really did not find anything that told me that there is an imitator. The Mr Paine version used something closer to complete sentences, which he obviously tired of quickly. My guess is that he was attempting to appease Anne, but just found it too tiresome and switched to the Ghost. My take on it is that he has found a better use of his time in retirement and will not be blogging as much.

paine said in reply to Peter K....
i sully myself alas

ghosty paine
is a name for late emerging comments
retrieved from the spam trap by our host

anne said in reply to Darryl FKA Ron...
The problem is not in wearing any particular label, but in a need to savage, profanely savage in this instance, scholars or researchers who differ from any preconceived stance or slant adopted by the academic. That tends to prejudice the audience of the academic.

Darryl FKA Ron said in reply to anne...
That tends to prejudice the audience of the academic.
[Not sure which audience that yor refer to. Class interest bias is already baked into the layer cake of elite thinking from the plutocrats to the oligarchs and even unto the sycophants. Among the vast majority of the electorate, then talking points are sorted out through confirmation bias of their ideological preferences to greater and lesser degrees. Open minded free thought is a rarity, but it has the clarity to see through such prejudicial rhetoric and nullify its effect.]

anne said in reply to anne...
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/08/15/1432250
August 15, 2007
Lost Worlds
By Naomi Klein
American Sociological Association
New York City
I think it matters that we had ideas all along, that there were always alternatives to the free market. And we need to retell our own history and understand that history, and we have to have all the shocks and all the losses, the loss of lives, in that story, because history didn't end. There were alternatives. They were chosen, and then they were stolen. They were stolen by military coups. They were stolen by massacres. They stolen by trickery, by deception. They were stolen by terror.
We who say we believe in this other world need to know that we are not losers. We did not lose the battle of ideas. We were not outsmarted, and we were not out-argued. We lost because we were crushed. Sometimes we were crushed by army tanks, and sometimes we were crushed by think tanks. And by think tanks, I mean the people who are paid to think by the makers of tanks. Now, most effective we have seen is when the army tanks and the think tanks team up. The quest to impose a single world market has casualties now in the millions, from Chile then to Iraq today. These blueprints for another world were crushed and disappeared because they are popular and because, when tried, they work. They're popular because they have the power to give millions of people lives with dignity, with the basics guaranteed. They are dangerous because they put real limits on the rich, who respond accordingly. Understanding this history, understanding that we never lost the battle of ideas, that we only lost a series of dirty wars, is key to building the confidence that we lack, to igniting the passionate intensity that we need....

Darryl FKA Ron said in reply to anne...
Socialism is looking better all the time. Given the limited alternatives among Libertarian and reactionary conservatives, which are both covert if not overt neoliberals, along with liberals that are overt free trade neoliberals, then we have such a line-up of political choices that would put a wry smile on ol' Karl Marx's face.

paine said in reply to anne...
krugman on kalecki .....
master K
"....suggested that business interests hate Keynesian economics because they fear that it might work — and in so doing mean that politicians would no longer have to abase themselves before businessmen in the name of preserving confidence"
EXACTIMENTO !!!!!!
but some how after answering the question very concisely
pk chooses to go for the booby prize

"This is pretty close to the argument that we must have austerity, because stimulus might remove the incentive for structural reform "
????????????????????????
in fact perpetually tightr job markets
maimtaimed by fiscal policy
thru
the tax cut and borrow
monetize and pin
transfer-credit control system
nope pk goes dark side rudy meidner here
ie
the winnowing process only demand constrained market based production systems can
agitate firms
to continue innovating and renovating
by exfoliating loser outfits
yup
purge the rotten ness
maybe not with apocolyptic contractions and stags
but by a consistent demand scarcity
thru
macro managed
job and credit rationing

paine said in reply to paine ...
missing section
in above
following
"in fact perpetually tightr job markets
maimtaimed(sic) by fiscal policy
thru
the tax cut and borrow
monetize and pin
transfer-credit control system "
read this:
i set up that in time would force a blow up
the existing
"autonomous firm pricing system"
replacing it with a huge sublation
where price change externalities are internalized
thru mark up warrant markets
crudly pre figured here:
by lerner-colander
http://books.google.com/books/about/MAP_a_market_anti_inflation_plan.html?id=nlkPAQAAMAAJ

anne said in reply to paine ...
in fact perpetually tighter job markets
maintained by fiscal policy
through
the tax cut and borrow
monetize and print
transfer-credit control system
set up that in time and it would force a blow up of
the existing
"autonomous firm pricing system"
replacing it with a huge sublation
where price change externalities are internalized
through mark up warrant markets
[ What is "sublation?"
I do not like iPads, which are awful for typing comments. ]

anne said in reply to paine ...
After several readings, I do not understand the complaint. What am I missing?

paine said in reply to anne...
sorry
comment fragment
this topic is huge however

paine said in reply to paine ...
rudy meidner ?
retain macro demand constraints
to control the wage price spiral and the innovation incentives
believed in corporate rent systems
and purging rotten ness
he just wanted most of the rents
taxed away and invested in
a national
"pension fund for all the people"

im1dc said...
ABC news is reporting
"Now Venezuela Is Running out of Toilet Paper"
By FABIOLA SANCHEZ and KARL RITTER
CARACAS, Venezuela... May 16, 2013... (AP)
"First milk, butter, coffee and cornmeal ran short. Now Venezuela is running out of the most basic of necessities — toilet paper.
Blaming political opponents for the shortfall, as it does for other shortages, the embattled socialist government says it will import 50 million rolls to boost supplies.
That was little comfort to consumers struggling to find toilet paper on Wednesday.
"This is the last straw," said Manuel Fagundes, a shopper hunting for tissue in downtown Caracas. "I'm 71 years old and this is the first time I've seen this."..."
========================================================
How embarrassing for the World Socialist Anti-America Haters.

anne said...
How embarrassing for the World Socialist Anti-America Haters.
[ Notice the language of ceaseless slander, hatred and attempted intimidation. ]

im1dc said in reply to anne...
If facts intimidate you then so be it.
BTW, we've had this discussion previously, it is not "slander" since slander is spoken, it would have to be libel since libel is written.
Yet, it is neither since it is truthful and fact based, the standard legal defense against both charges, proving them baseless, since the truth can't be slander or libel.
And, I don't hate Venezuela or Venezuelans. I only know one and she's a foxy, lively, and accomplished PT with world class taste in hand made silver jewelry from custom jewelers in her country. Can't hate that, gotta love and respect it.

paine said in reply to im1dc...
croaks of a preposterous bull frog

im1dc said in reply to paine ...
paine, what the heck?

paine said in reply to im1dc...
i love ya
but i'm a red


im1dc said in reply to paine ...
Not so fast, wouldn't Venezuela be much better off if they turn to the Chinese Communist system of controlled capitalism and stopped expropriating from the producers?
It is OK to admire Castro and Hugo and the other Leftist Latin American leaders for the good they have done imo, but that isn't enough, one must also look at everything they have done and criticize their faults too, imo.
I'm thinking you probably begrudgingly agree.

paine said in reply to im1dc...
good response
we ought to exchange views on this
but too man of my comments are speared like fat ugly fish
by the site's spaminator x.0

anne said in reply to anne...
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/16/the-smithkleinkalecki-theory-of-austerity/
May 16, 2013
The Smith/Klein/Kalecki Theory of Austerity
By Paul Krugman
What Smith didn’t note, somewhat surprisingly, is that his argument is very close to Naomi Klein’s "Shock Doctrine," with its argument that elites systematically exploit disasters to push through neoliberal policies even if these policies are essentially irrelevant to the sources of disaster. I have to admit that I was predisposed to dislike Klein’s book when it came out, probably out of professional turf-defending and whatever — but her thesis really helps explain a lot about what’s going on in Europe in particular....
-- Paul Krugman
[ Naomi Klein was devastatingly right about Latin America, but remarkably economists dismissed the rightness as though political-economic movements from Guatemala or Honduras to Chile were not repeatedly designed for the sake of corporate and political interests in the United States. ]

anne said...
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/16/the-sadomonetarists-of-basel/
May 16, 2013
The Sadomonetarists of Basel
By Paul Krugman
The Wall Street Journal highlights a speech by Jaime Caruana, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, warning of the dangers of easy money and the need to raise rates now to avert … something or other. And his views matter, says the Journal:
"Mr. Caruana is no disgruntled outvoted hawk on a policy-setting council, trying desperately to set the record straight after being outvoted. Rather, he’s the mouthpiece for a global college of central bankers, almost all of whom find themselves under intense pressure from their national governments to keep things ticking over while they try to repair the economy.
"His views also matter for another reason: the BIS is one of the few international financial institutions (some say the only one) to see the financial crisis coming and to issue clear warnings ahead of time."
I guess we can check the record here and see just how prescient the BIS was. What I do recall, however — which the Journal apparently doesn’t — is that the BIS has spent years warning about the dangers of low interest rates. Except that a couple of years back it was telling a completely different story about why we needed to raise rates; you see, the big danger was of imminent inflation:
" 'Global inflation pressures are rising rapidly as commodity prices soar and as the global recovery runs into capacity

paine said...
in the final analysis
pk blows the kalecki message
because he conceives of structural reforms entirely within the context of the present MNC sustaining system
implicitly he asks
"what will sustain and hopefully improve the present system'
hence his implicit observence of a NAIRU taboo line
debating whether that line is at 7 or 4 percent etc
is not the key
its the notion
to prevent
wage price spirals which are lethal
to the present system
we forgo higher output and employment
ie higher social mobilization for production
yes nairu as lethality
not
harbinger of the deeper structural "limitations"
of the present system
screaming at us
to sublate them

                   

anne said in reply to anne...
in the final analysis
PK blows the Kalecki message
because he conceives of structural reforms entirely within the context of the present multinational corporation sustaining system
implicitly he asks
"what will sustain and hopefully improve the present system?"
hence his implicit observance of a non-accelerating rate of unemployment taboo line
debating whether that line is at 7 or 4 percent etc
is not the key
it's the notion
to prevent
wage price spirals which are lethal
to the present system
we forgo higher output and employment
ie higher social mobilization for production
yes NAIRU as lethality
not
harbinger of the deeper structural "limitations"
of the present system
screaming at us
to sublate * them
* Assimilate
[ Really nice. ]

paine said in reply to anne...
sublate
is one of the terms
used by us moth eaten old marxo-hegelians
we use it to label the "novel"
institutional arrangements
that emerge during the formation
of the "next stage "
of world historical social development