Tuesday, August 19, 2014

are we close to there yet ?

. "There" is to  "full employment."

regardez the hacks from FED Atlanta

"...observers cite in defense of an approaching full-employment and growing wage pressures is the following chart. It shows a rather strong correlation between survey data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) on the proportion of firms planning to raise worker compensation over the next three months and lagged wage and salary growth (see the chart).
Businesses' Response to Tightening Job Market
  "......if you are looking for a sign of impending wage pressure, the chart above certainly looks compelling. Well, except that a pretty large gap has opened up between the behavior of the NFIB survey data and the actual growth trend in compensation since 2011. "

. But

".... our survey data aren't showing the same rise in compensation expectations that we see in the NFIB survey data (see the tables). "
Firm's Compensation Expectations

" Our survey data are not directly comparable to the NFIB since the NFIB survey asks firms about their plans during the next three months, and we ask about plans during the coming 12 months."

"Moreover, the NFIB surveys small businesses—roughly 75 percent of the businesses in the NFIB survey employ fewer than 20 workers, and about 60 percent employ fewer than 10.  "

". The first observation we note is that as the size of the firm shrinks, so does the proportion of small firms planning to increase wages. "

"This result isn't especially surprising since the small firms in our panel report considerably worse prevailing business conditions than do the large firms"

money line:.

" On net in August, 53 percent of the firms that employ fewer than 20 workers expect to raise worker compensation during the next 12 months. ..."

"That percent is down
from 69 percent of similarly sized firms in May 2013. "  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Further, the average amount that firms expect to increase wages (2.7 percent) is also about unchanged from 15 months ago (2.8 percent), and this result is rather consistent by firm size and industry."

" If anything, our panel of businesses reports less expected compensation pressure in the year ahead than when we last asked them in May 2013"


"  maybe this is missing the big point of the figure that kicked off this post."

"Since about 2011, there appears to be a growing discrepancy between the recent trend in the NFIB survey on compensation increases and actual compensation increases."

 ". Correlation is different than causation, and many correlations coming from the labor market in recent years appear to be deviating from their historical norms. Isn't that the takeaway of the two earlier macroblog posts? "

"We're not brave enough to say that we know for certain that the economy isn't on the verge of an accelerated pace of compensation growth. But, if we were brave enough, we'd say our survey data indicate that such acceleration is unlikely. "

the zany faux chicken shit authorian  trio

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