ue update

"As of March, about 14 million people were unemployed... At the time..., about 8.5 million were receiving some kind of unemployment payments... That leaves about 5.5 million people unemployed without benefits, up 1.4 million from a year earlier. ..."

job rents versus talent or skill rents

job rents are position based

like a ceo that by implicit arrangement gets 10% of expected medium run corporate profits

simple observation # 137899

when an elected official or officials
claim they're "taking  effective action " to address  society wide problem n

most folks lack the quantitative framework  sense of scale etc
ie the informal loose  model to figure out
whether this action  has any chance  at effectiveness

any chance to make  a signifigant difference

this  mass  incapacity to evaluate a policy
can segment itself
     and still exist
simply by   operating with added octane  at a number of higher levels of relative citizen  sophistication

you get  the ascending  great chain of clown being 

in the end
 can we rely on the  ballot box
to provide  majoritarian self interets   feed back  to steer  policy

in short

does our  periodic duopoly choice mechanism work  for ...the people ???

forget about it

doe it even curb anti majoritarian state action ???

if that anti majoritarian state action is deemed  by policy circles
   to be crucial to  the sustemance of corporate hegemony

in a word

NYET !!!!!!


the biggest ignorance is of course about the global market structure
in products and funds
and the hegemonic role of  trans nat free range corporations

why even academic macro nauts like pk
one's that know better
refuse to isolate the MNC policy pov
before speculating on the motives behind apparently
                        "anti majoritarian  welfare "  in say .. cyclical macro policy
or tax and transfer modification

---------------

tedious maxim :


forget the struggle of the ideologians

as a first cut
take on
why this policy path might benefit a powerful policy bending group or class

example trap and stag


paine patent pending thesis :

no forex moves
no fast recovery of job markets
no adequate transfer system pay outs
for the planet's   major advanced  national market systems

stag - boom  contrasting absorption rates only 
to  adjustments  chronic imbalances in  cross  N/S hemi trade and fund flows

boom south stag north
this is better
for the medium and long run  as well as short run international corporate profits

and  if we face a trade off
more  international  business is  better  then  more inside advanced nation business 

because

corporate profit margins  are higher on cross border and overseas busimess

----------------
gedanken Rx... for enlightenment

find  opr build  an open macro model
with specified international firms IFs
with n bordered local market
give these  IFs pricing power and border crossing ability
 that allows  them  to capture 
what in under specified models
pass thru  as vague  "national gains from trade "
or at best
"national factor gains from trade "

then starting with a stylized "present structure  and condition " sim run
with each alternative policy path
then look for the IF profit  maxer  over the m periods


if you want to look at national factor effects of various policies kool
but must use  a well defined economic class
like the  IFs  "stockholders"
   or  greater refinement
like the national skill or  skill less gains

even a sim of   income gains ..changes
 to a simple unified labor factor has its virtues
despite submerged distributional complexity
so long as niche and positional  job rent receivers
 are removed first


crass mechanical  most dollars for us  determinism

is better then  a review and evaluation
  of class sponsored ideologians clashing by ....rights

the upper incomers .... feel the fairness

.

the trap is crap

the liquidity trap is really a credit ration contraction

if you talk like joe stig about a damaged set of credit  channels
you are playing cover up
  even if without intention

the existing private channels "could" loan to various applicants
they don't
because  their  narrow horizon own bottom profit calc cum default  uncertainty
in a time like now of stagged effective demand
kills loans that in the event would create the very effective demand conditions to justify themselves

co ordination problem

really all these post crisis bs moves from a purely technical model maximizer agent pov
cry out for default protection from "above "
 much like the implicit protection the big bail made flesh
the toxic bubble inside the big boys
was  nasty in consequence
but that's not relevent eh ??

nothing prevents using same  means to a higher not lower end

see the sedate red line

now unit labor costs are  the real  policy impacting " tracked  data stream"
at least by the fed's number cruncher elves
of course they are
what is controled is a wage price spiral

avoid circularity here
whether indeed the first move is a price move or a wage move it perpetuates itself
in the absence of  sufficient credit flow de - accommodation 

interestingly
 inquiring public eyes
and even  deeper proding ---maybe even sceptical --
cross comparing causal fit operations
using credit policy and the various possible "governing " data streams
even if conducted by independent  "researchers"

prolly can't torture out a signifigant difference
in fit

i suspect
the diff is not all that discern  able

if we take any core  price change numbers however barbered

---and we have a plethora of  barber shops clipping out  shape charged  data streams --


we'll  prolly never  isolate the unit labor cost data stream
convincingly as THE prime mover  of credit flow policy
particularly
if we restrict ourselves to  data since say
 the on set of post volcker dammerung
ie  the great moderation and on thru the  fall 08 crisis and
the  following contraction and present  trap and stag act

given the speed of adjustment on the price side this follows

only when wages stag even as core  prices accelerate could we "see" the unit labor cost  determination  emerge
as motivator from the price clusters

such an event hasn't as yet occured only commodity prices are sufficiently unhinged from
domestic  labor costs
perhaps import prices rising and flowing thru the domestic final product price structure
say after relentless changes in forex
could trick out this truth :

its about nominal wage control stupid

old adage modified

the dispersal of the service workers
over large areas
breaks their power of resistence

while concentration increases that of industrial workers

has Clio turned this upside down
in the globalized market place

non traded products seem  now a better basis for rent sharing
with certain sectors and strata of the job class
 in the metropole   eh ??