Friday, February 25, 2011

macro trumps trade theory

everyone knows comparative statics is of no use in policy debates
and yet lots of spilt ink recently over gains from   new cross border trade
with or without a compensating  transfer system TS
but look at trade in independent pieces

new imports take market share  from pre existing domestic producers eh ??

the lost value  added  pnce earned by local producers 
is  only by assumption  off set by "equally  valued " exports

how can the TS  pareto ize the outcome ??

not even  the implicit market clearing mechanisms  can rig this exercise

 of course there's no reason to expect the shock of trade on relevent  local markets
to quickly diffuse through out the "bordered factor system "
before  a generation of non traders  in the bordered area have taken a beating
but put that aside

recall all trade is mediated by credit or credit money now
and  so any  balance becomes remote
ie the as if barter assumptions is a complete magic trick

the bordered areas aggregate advantage
 hardly comes into play if the macro effects lead to disemployment in the  borrdered area
rather then smooth distribution of impact  into winners and losers all still "employed "
as is implicit in the trade theory formulations

shared by all players
trade occurs across borders if the traders gain on both sides of the border
AND the non traders can't mount a stop order or rely on automatic TS actions
to maintain ex ante positions of non traders