Wednesday, March 23, 2011

bubbles versus booms

exactly the correct distinction

bubbles form out of scheinvert inflations
infrastructure out of tied in boomings
in real production
thus booms versus bubbles

sort of a castor and pollux  operation

castor:
house lot value

the result of a  bubble


 pollux :
housing construction
the result of a boom

yes booms hault
but bubbles burst
the boom and bust gets its sting ...its real sting
from  the bubble burst  part
the minsky moment
is pure financial "overlay"
tyhe incubus of financing past
once the bubble proves pure scheinvert
the conjoined infrastructure boom is over
 but that boom leaves real useable products

a sector boom only gets
that sector too far ahead of the rest of the product sectors
to justify existing relative prices

key point
 there would be no real loss
on past activity
only on future activity

without the historic legacy
 of
debt left behind now not "supportable "
by the current revenue flow of
any over built systems ...with quick market clearing price adjustments
the sector could proceed with production

answer
socialized debt
a debt "ownership structure
that of the whole people
which  can adjust easily and immediately to market shifts
and the inevitable "discovery" of its own "sub optimal" proportional development
by the purblind proceddings of any market system
as it gropes myopically along and around
in this hyper "uncertain " hyper changing and surprising
evolving "world " of ours

infra structure built by private undertaking
largely on credit money
widely sourced but private
debt and equity is of course most exposed to the whims of uncertainty
---like any vast fixed cost undertaking --
winners win bigger losers lose bigger

------------------------------------------ 
farm land lot value
as the "capitalized "
residual value of uncertain change
in final demand for field crops
ought not to exist in private ownership hands
the simple georgist movement oughta boom as the land lot values boom
at least lets socialize the inevitable scheinvert
into a tax revenue stream
china with its politbureau system
has the proper unaccountable despotic power
to begin the transition to total location rent value extraction
by means of taxation
thus no debt leveraged off lot values
ie potential bubble fountains
probably too late now
thesis:
the privately appropriated rent stream
from china's ongoing lot boom
is already too deep and too pervasive
to be reversed or re-socialized now
a georgist policy would probably
topple the existing
vanguard/leading party system ....
and what a topple that might be eh ??