Saturday, September 29, 2012

basel III => increased precision assays of risk => increased leverage

what do you expect

the  for profit banksters have one strategic objective at the highest level :

reduce equity to as  thin a green line as possible

do you imagine reforming system regulators will block this
 by  ever more elaborately calculate  risk weighting ?

what is risk .. ..after all

unpredictable ?



"Looking at banks with over $100 billion in assets at the end of 2006,
 risk-based capital ratios
 fail to predict which would fail when the crisis hit"
kwak

why?

"; Basel II allowed banks to use internal risk management models for calculating their risk-weighted assets and capital, capital regulation is now performed by models that potentially include millions of parameters that must be estimated.... But these parameters must be estimated using relatively short historical samples—drawn from a historical period that may or may not be representative of the future.... we collide with a  fact of statistics: when you have a limited amount of sample data,
 simple models have greater predictive accuracy than complex models"
kwak






 the phenomenology of risk expectations

 discovered or  manufactured ?


a fully socialized credit system removes this game

risk is subsumed by a mandated universal risk premium system


want an outside  assessment ?

the pool assignments could be shadowed by traded speculators paper


default/delinquency  bets  eh ?