Monday, February 18, 2013

optimal Delong monetary off sets

"Suppose that we have a system in which future unemployment ut+1 is a function of variables V (which include past, present, and expected future unemployment and inflation rates), of the stimulative impact of monetary policy m, and of a shock:
(1) ut+1=ƒ(Vt) + mt + εut+1 ;
in which inflation is a function of variables V (which include past, present, and expected future unemployment and inflation rates) and of a shock:
(2) πt+1 = j(Vt) + επt+1 ;
and in which there is an objective function h depending on present and future values of unemployment and inflation (but not directly on monetary or fiscal policy variables):
(3) h(πt, πt+1, …; ut, ut+1, …)
At each point in time the monetary authority will choose an optimal m't in order to maximize the expected value of that objective (3) subject to (1) and (2), and the unemployment rate will consequently be:
(4) ut+1=ƒ(Vt) + m't + εut+1
Now consider what happens if we replace (1) with (1a), with the difference between (1) and (1a) being that fiscal policy g also affects unemployment:
(1a) ut+1=ƒ(Vt) + mt + gt + εut+1
Then as long as m't is the optimal choice of m for the system (1), (2), and (3):







(5) m"*t = m't − gt
is the optimal choice of m’ for the system (1a), (2), and (3).
Why? In system (1a), (2), and (3), define:
(6) nt = mt + gt
Then (1a) becomes:
(7) ut+1=ƒ(Vt) + nt + εut+1
By hypothesis, the objective h is maximized for the system of (7), (2), and (3) by choosing:
(8) n't =m't
And so the objective is maximized for the system of (1’), (2), and (3) by choosing:
(9) m"t =m't - gt
You take your optimal policy if fiscal policy were neutral--if gt=0--and you then subtract the stimulative value of the actual gt from it.
The important point here is that m and g cannot enter into the objective function h directly, but only indirectly through their effects on inflation and unemployment.
For this reason this argument breaks down at the zero nominal lower bound. At the zero lower bound the central bank does care only about inflation and unemployment. It cares as well about the magnitude of the non-standard monetary policy measures it must take in order to achieve its net monetary policy impetus value m."



yup
assume optimal monetary policy job one
is
  off set any fiscal macro impacts

fiscal policy must be neutralized if not neutral


orrrrrrrrr if the nominal rate of interest hits the zero barrier
and  optimal  policy dictates the rate  must go south....
now you accomodate the fiscal poicy

then of course fiscal policy may be stymied ....
then you
go non conventional and buy assets lots and lots of assets

this is where you end up when monetary policy plays macro manager

the voice of common sense cries out

use fiscal policy always
blow the road blocks

of course this gives uncle control of out put not corporate guardian elites