Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Dallas FED calc of opportunity output loss from snail pace of present recovery: " $6 trillion to $14 trillion"

"A confluence of factors produced the December 2007–June 2009 Great Recession—bad bank loans, improper credit ratings, lax regulatory policies and misguided government incentives that encouraged reckless borrowing and lending."

note well this is the horror story about the lot bubble burst
 not the toxic paper implosion
"The worst downturn in the United States since the 1930s was distinctive."



"Easy credit standards and abundant financing fueled a boom-period expansion
that was followed by an epic bust with enormous negative economic spillover."

the  great bails are not part of the response here because the hi fi credit channel implosion
is not the cause of the crisis

stop laffing you bastids !!!!!!

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What Society Gave Up
or
how  " to measure the cost of lost output"


measure the real recovery path
against
" a baseline trend that might have existed absent the crisis. "

". Output per person as of mid-2013 stood 12 percent below the average of U.S. economic recoveries over the past half-century,"


" bottom-line estimate of the cost of the crisis, assuming output eventually returns to its precrisis trend path"

" an output loss of $6 trillion to $14 trillion. "


" $50,000 to $120,000 for every U.S. household"

"the equivalent of 40 to 90 percent of one year’s economic output."

"the wide  range of estimates is due in part to  uncertainty"

" how long till the  return to the precrisis growth trend."

" output may never return to trend—the path of future output may be
 permanently lower than before."

" If that’s the case, the crisis cost will exceed the $14 trillion
 high-end estimate of output loss. ..".\