Thursday, September 5, 2013

PK's fantasy reovery deficit increment ...1 trillion dollars..." But how bad is that?"

"Start with the CBO estimates of potential GDP subtracted from actual GDP
to estimate the output gap."

" Start the clock at the beginning of 2009, and the output gap — measured quarterly,
but at an annual rate — looks like this:"


The output gap.
 
ecce
The NAIRU output gap !!!!!!
 
" If you add it up, the cumulative output gap since start-2009 comes to $2.29 trillion"
 
" $2.29 trillion worth of goods and services we could and should have produced"
 
" but didn’t."
 
 
"How much government spending would have been required to close that gap?"


" at the zero lower bound the multiplier is greater than one"


"  take a multiplier of 1.3"

  " $1.76 trillion in spending over the past 4 1/2 years to close the output gap."


" is that an extra $1.76 trillion in debt? "


"No "


"the economy would have been stronger, leading both to
 higher revenue and to lower spending on means-tested programs. "

" each dollar of extra GDP would have saved 1/3 of a dollar
 in the form of higher revenue and lower spending"

" 2.29/3 = $0.76 trillion."


" the net extra debt we would have run up with my fantasy stimulus
 turns out to be a round $1 trillion"

". OMG: ONE TRILLION DOLLARS!"


"ut how bad is that?"

" about 6 percent of GDP"


"we would have had federal debt at 76 percent of GDP"


"can  anyone seriously claim that this difference would have caused a fiscal crisis?"


" in return  millions of American families would have been spared
 the hardship and humiliation of mass unemployment, lost houses and savings, and more."


 " We can further argue that future revenue would be higher "

" improved, not worsened, our fundamental fiscal position."