Thursday, August 25, 2011

model versus model


in the models
the play is hiding behind y
what's the break out of change thru time
between p change and q change
over say 10-12 quarters
guys like ned phelps want us to believe
firms will rationally convert nearly all pulses
of policy induced additional ED
into price changes
leaving q un influenced
and rendering fiscal thrust impotent
as impotent as the unacknowledged
liquidity trap renders solvent firm directed credit policy
at the model level
this is and always will be possible
since in the end firms are free to price and produce
as they wish
and their choices
can be assumed into nearly any form desired
you simply work back from the conclusion u want
making it all seem as plausible as ambiguous labeling can make
now if we have disinflation under way
suddenly firms can react by cutting q
not p
this again can be modeled nicely
and blamed on greedy stubborn ignorant wage earners
'nother application 'nother set of assumptions

---
what mr hicks did in 37
was build a little model
that freezes the price system
taking it out of the possible outcomes set
of course he has to freeze relative prices
since y is a composition product
but also he freezes the absolute price level
in a sense we exist in an eternal present moment
all he added to keynes cross was
the pseudo realism of the interest rate
--there by letting money
conceptually out of the liquidity trap ---
yes by adding the r dimension to the y dimension
hicks gave us a way to get firms net spending
into the show
without recourse to an acceleration principle
but still and all at the micro level
we still had both a p and q set of vectors ...
plus a set of future "periods"
as we do in reality
but there is plenty of counter moves and other logic boxes
many logically sound ways
exist to get back to FE fast
so why the jousting
just pick a class side and gather up the relevent cudgels
why buy into
all of this model versus model war fare??
isn't it silly thru the looking glass exercising ??
trying to provide a iron clad escape proof set of hand cuffs for your chosen black hat side
t'is a will 'o the wisp
after all
what else do you think guys like barro and phelps and krooooooooogman are up to ??
besides allegorical combat
dueling logic boxes
now i agrre
its wonderous to see the likes of
square wheel barro and dogdish bagwhatme
make such patent clown romps
out of their apologia
for in one case the present contrived and maintained north hemi stag and in the other
the four decade long de industrialization of america
but isn't it too much to ask anymore of them then that ??
isn't it sadistic of us to demand
they start crying out on network TV
"i surrender mr kroogman you pinned me
i give up ...yes you are right...my line is pure
rocky mountain dew ...yes i'm a lying craven
corporate barking beagle...yes i take money from the korporate klavern kids ... yes i deserve to be hung from a lamp post "
be satisfied to watch their prat falls
guys like greg mankiw and marty feldstein
--the buggars--
are too cautious and sneaky to provide us so much entertainment