to serve adequately as fiscal stablization tool
tobin's defense of keynes in the wake of the expectations revoution
with its multi period eulering etc
none of which alters the qualitative macro "findings " on K
and for Clio's sake ..what more then qualitative findings did keynes present ?
and the policy implications of his GT seem more then sufficient
the battering of hicks subsequent "modelization" for blindness and brainlessness
implied way to much ambition for that designs use
it was not a forecaster
it was a simple fully wired curcuit
that included a real subsystem and a financial sub system
its modesty incarnate
and here's the upshot
hicks is/lm by itself a one period simplified highly agreggated GE system with no looking back or forward is despite this a very useable short term model (STM).
-- btw short term is all policy makers and macronautics need in a liquidity trap type slump since the introduction of expectations is irrelevent to a trap context
where future looking is functionally equivalent to a time freeze
ie static expectations
...though all this is as yet not well modeled ...but that's another issue --
at any rate
with a K type STM
and good real time feed back what more is needed even where expectaions are dynamic ??
why suggest the samuelson generation claimed more for hicks then it could deliver ??
particularly when the system is not in a liquidity slump
yes hicks simplification hardly bares the weight keynes GT bares
but so what ..who oughta care ?
we have the full montee version here
nothing in the GT's full compass swing
restricts its micro foundations
not so of course its midgetized 80's descendents
"the new keynes kids"
-------------
multi agentization ?
yes multi agent models make for great science exploration
however are only better for macronauts if they produce
a yet firmer committment to the types of effective demand policy
found already 76 years ago in keynes
and frankly the GT is more then enough
the models have yet to approach exhausting
the variety and complexity of micro foundations
implied let alone compatible with K's theory's "generality "
----------------
lets make it happen
design mechanisms that hyper capacitate the transfer system ( TS)
ala meade lerner
when the auto stablizers
-- onc built into the TS ---
act they will produce results
and this TS impact on target variables will be measured
--say for example aggregate real output and or real job hours ---
if these are our agreed to targets with agrred to paths ahead
all we need
to manage the national economy across this path
is qualitatve relationships between injections and outcomes
with good fast numbers appearing on the macro nautic dash board
-- numbers for among much else product price inflation the dollar forex etc ---
we can accelerate or deccelerate the injection flow
ya ya lags
ya ya qualitative forecasting needs to include implied lags to some extent
and the response of the firms and households and foreign systems ?
some sort of forecast must be made
however again
when we're surprised we react to the surprise
no that's not so good as a better forecast and a keen proaction
but hell life is complex
no auto pilot for uncle sa
ya there's no auto pilot for uncle
the only caveat is unforeseen crises
like
"the lags will trigger a sudden unexpected run away "
usually its an inflation run away or currency forex collapse
or less acute but more sinister
"the deficit is gonna get to the point where the dbt crushes us ..
often connected to a currency collapse
or essential import trade implodes or or
all the usual hysterias of those wedded to non fiscal intervention
non state macro activism
usually because they narrowly benefit
from high national unemployment
or protracted national stagnation
so ya
they cry
go keynesian and ..." the 70's will return!!!"
"remember carternomics !!!...the volcker dammerung !"
all piffle
we have adequate knowledge to navigate an open system with debt in its own currency thru such troubled waters
without going to quarter speed
