Tuesday, January 24, 2017

"irreducible, emergent, non-ergodic, radically uncertain economy"

Irreducibility is a fact
Perfect foresight impossible ...so what ?

We can get better simply by acting on our simple models recommendations and using feed back
No need for ABMs to impact Kalecki macro

Emergent fine but once emerged  and adequately observed we can model its features
And again if the unanticipated  emerges  we modify policy

Non- ergodic ?

Than God we finite beings are not endowed with infinite patience
Contemplating the management of The spontaneous motions of the seas is one thing

Managing the spontaneous motions of a market based national production system quite  another

Radically uncertain ?

Yup but rarely overly surprising

Yes the September panic on non regulated over nite credit markets
Was such a surprise
But only because we failed to effectively up date
Our vintage  " run " models to include
New markets for over nite credit