Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Producing new memes decreasing returns ? Why ?

Very unlikely 

"In green is the relative number of researchers compared to the number in 1930. This isn’t the number of researchers, its a measure of effective researchers, found by dividing total R and D spending by the nominal wage of high-skilled workers. Relative to 1930, we have almost 25 times as many (effective) researchers at work today. This leads to the author’s title question - “Are ideas getting harder to find?”. And the author’s answer is “Yes”."

Idea TFP and TFP GrowthThus looking at individual industries/lines will help us sort out what is happening. The first example is transistors, and the count of transistors per square inch on a chip. Famously, this appears to obey Moore’s Law, which is that the number of transistors per square inch doubles every 18 months. If we count the number of transistors per square inch as “ideas”, then this translates to a growth rate of 35% per year. At the same time, the effective number of researchers working at chip companies (Intel, AMD, etc..) has grown by a factor of about 80 since 1970. Plotting this together yields their next figure.
Moores LawMaybe discovery is only partly connected to total effort All you get with more research mind hours Is redundancy and tight interval  between rival teams  in the same races 
Maybe large teams slow the rate of discovery 
Much to ponder 

Even if global pop growthslows to zero Of course as available free labor ratios rise Thru increased productivity for necessary labor The research effort can increase ItItαItβSt