2. If GDP grows a percentage point faster—which counts as a very optimistic forecast at the moment—then unemployment will fall by half a percentage point, from say, 9% to 8.5%.
Now keep your eye on the red dots, which show the Fed’s unemployment projections. These unemployment forecasts are all more optimistic than Okun’s law suggests. That is, the Fed is projecting better news on the unemployment front than is justified by their economic growth forecast."
---- wolfers
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err don't get too excited doom and gloomers
draw a horizontal line at the zero point on the vertical axis across the graph
now draw a vertical line up from the 3% point on the horizontal axis
see any dots where they ought not to be ???
ie south west of these two lines intersection
i do
real point
look at the "predicted " rate of gdp growth that closes the gap
to 5%
looks to be off the bottom south east end of the data spread eh ?
talking 9 % baby ...9 % to get there in one year
gentle ben 's latest projections
this year not even 3%
next year maybe 3.5 % .. but less then 4 %
and 2013 ???
after barry gets re elected and there's no pressure
4 % or so ....maybe ..if the Almighty smiles on us
we could do it it of course ourselves without divine help
just run a big enough increase in the federal fiscal deficit (net of any state or local contraction)
say we're at 3 % now
then 6 % that might take 5 to 6% increase
in deficit as percent of gdp
or another 800- 900 billion net gubmint deficit increment
and sustain it thereindefinitely only tapering off
as we close the trade gap and see a lift in the corporate and or housing spending rate
sufficient to sustain the necessary aggregate spending at that level and keep the whole national system
in addition
growing at at least three percent
