Tuesday, June 28, 2011

so what if uncle pops bubbles

okay uncle has some rule of thumb
that he uses to pop bubbles
now what happens ???

bubbles don't form
but what if there's been a real change in some relationship
that  makes traders want to  surge  past the thumb breadth rule
want to violate it
push against it

well like an orderly appreciation uncle allows the price to rise or fall as the case may be

thesis bubble up prices  will not persist once "demonstrated"

real changes in relationships will persist will try to push past the artificial barrier

could be gamed ??
of course
forex markets may be our best paradigm here as in much else

the point is to floor and ceiling  spec markets
what harm can that do if the floor and ceiling show enough flex when persistently challenged

wagering on a car race is socially harmless nonsense

folks like skew they like the lottery the chance taking

but commodity specs and currency specs and house lot specs and equity specs and bond specs
they can do serious long lasting social harm

neighbors on either side of your house
playing a game of toss ' the live grenade '  at each other 
are perhaps going  to bring  harm  down on you too
                                                      at some point eh ???