Thursday, November 17, 2011

a fudge in The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP)

of course the  now infamous and ridiculous 3% of gdp ceiling is idiotic

even if  converted to an over the cycle criterion

and
we all  know this bit:
" national debt lower than 60% of GDP "

but what old this mean "or approaching that value"

headed that way from whatever starting position

not really a big hurdle once zonal average  nominal gdp growth  gets back to  the 7 to 8 % range


the nasty grind down past 4 or 5 % to even sub 2% inflation is the evident culprit

nothing prevents a stable range of 5 % plus or minus 1% eh ??

so long as the ECB kept sovereign borrowing rates at par with inflation

any balanced budget national pub sec passes the test

of course intra zone trade imblances make balanced budgets everywhere   in efficient
only the whole zone really needs something approaching that
and even then only if coupled with a balance trade with outside the zoners