" In January 2011, Fed officials predicted that GDP would grow around 3.7 percent that year. It clocked in at 2 percent. In January 2012, they anticipated growth of about 2.5 percent. We ended up with 1.6 percent.The Fed has often, both during the financial crisis and its aftermath, held their fire on monetary easing because they were overly optimistic about the economyThe FED has predicted that the U.S. economy would be back to a 4 percent rate of growth in 2012 … then 2013 … then 2014."
"A more rigorous analysis of Fed official’s forecasts was published in 2007 by researchers at the Fed itself and covered 20 years of historical predictions.
fall estimates
off by about 0.6 percentage points
even in a year that was mostly over."
" Forecasts for three years into the future missed the mark by about 1.5 percentage points."
