Tuesday, January 31, 2012

is this a repeat ? ..so what

The whole game of macronautics is about comparative dynamics

The target is often far less problematic then the closing speed


Here in the states we all want to get to nairu as well as retain a tame price level

But the acceptable time to target for arrival at nairu
 and the acceptable time to retstore the fetish 2% inflation rate
Seems oddly asymmetric


If we are below nairu..er actually we pre empt that outcome

If we are above nairu we seem to accept a slow clopping pace back down
vide now !

If we are below 2% ...yikes we don't do anything to get back to target
 let alone do it at flank speed

If above target inflation ?

There and only there
do we seem to have a reasonable acceptable time to closing on target

Now I admit since the volckerdammerung
We have had very little volatility in the inflation core rate
And a bit more in the UE flux

But let's get some explicit time frames here
for the four different deviations

----------------

whats the welfare loss from one percent off target on inflation versus one percent off target on employment

on the up side ?

on the down side ?

we have four determinations
and each one is expressed as a function of both  distance and side of target eh ?

is the welfare loss linear in both or either dimension ??

if bent
 how bent ?

gets kinda interesting