Monday, February 20, 2012

but its still mostly about automation

"During our sample period, offshoring still was not a primary driver of aggregate employment changes in U.S. manufacturing. "



surprise surprise
its an NBER op :

at any rate might as well see the damn statistics
as in there are lies damn lies statistic and damn statistic

"..After decomposing the 17-percentage-point decline in U.S. manufacturing employment at home and assigning different causal factors to the decline, we find that the usual suspects account for only a tiny fraction of the observed decline. Greater import penetration accounts for 2 percentage points; lower and falling real wages in low-income countries where U.S. companies expanded their offshore operations only account for 2.4 percentage points of the reduction in U.S. manufacturing employment. We show that 12 percentage points out of the 17-percentage-point decline in U.S. employment can be attributed to the falling cost of capital. As the price of investment goods fell relative to wages, companies replaced people with machines. "

notes:

as  above
  please focus here
this was a NBER paper

translation
it is tilted pro MNC
and not about to indict the sponsoring "elements "
till the deed is done

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i think clear papers like this btw suggest we are entering a new era when de industrializing the north american continent will taper off
and re industrialization slowly crawl up
these are multi decade trends here
and places like NBER managed to keep these long trends obscure through out the goden years of MNC led deindustrialization
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so why the reversal ?
one its time to expand markets inside east asia
and
the 30 year clobbering of industrial job forces has produced
a brand new wage environment
or at least is well past worrying about
the realizationn of that "happy " outcome
the treaty of detraoit is effectively abrogated
so lets re up the roduction system
slowly of course ever so slowly