Monday, February 20, 2012

what might we produce if had a go at full throttle macro injections


model choice here
strikes me as about justifying pre existing policy positions
positions based on objectives themselves
rooted in "positional allegiances"
call them bald rationalizations or attempted trumping moves
reality i suspect is
we have a fantasticaly elastic production system here
proved best by the interval 1939 to 1944
just look at germany and the US  during that evil war

elastic because the ultimate factors of production
people and raw commodities
are easily repurposed
and chronically under utilized
and bottle necks transient
because specialized intermediate fixed inputs
are in the end
once targeted
easily augmented or substituted
btw
in this context today
talk of large wide spread output bottle necks

 right out there up ahead over the demand horizon
is a disgrace to reason

if our purpose is mass RE employment
and for the job class what else ought it to be ?

then
generate the demand and the system will find
the products the machines
 and
the labor to produce them
or ...and here is the or
that kicks in .....we simply will import them !!!

yes that certainly reduces the efficiency of the multipliers
and adds to the potential external nominal debt
but these are matters we can deal with
in the goodness of time and by multiple means

---think recycle into a real shrink thru product and wage inflation ---
bill vickrey and abba lerner
zeroed in on a far more important observation

the capitalist system requires excess capacity to operate effectively
ie profitably ..at all times...throughout the cycle

 if the capitalist system is to operate   sustainably
and without a class crisis
we will always have excss capacity
and as we approach the limits at the top of the cycle
either "the state "
will pre empt  continued booming
  if  the hi fi system alone can't hault the expansion  by its own spontaneous cycling
ie  contraction will "emerge  or be contrived
thru  credit flow rate reduction

if the hi fi system doesn't spontaneously hit one of its minsky moments
and it doesn't too often these decades

i think we can see post 1945
a distinct preference here in the economic north
  for contrived contractions
over big wallys
but still ...look out
fall 08 !!

that's why the fed is indy

to cut off the booms b4
either wages go wild
or
imports cause a forex crisis

ie the bottle necks are
 "institutional"(credit availability )
not
 physical (plant and equipment )
or
mass mental (hu cap ---know how )