Saturday, May 26, 2012

the three layers here need a distinction
inside euro zone
outside euro zone EZ but inside common market EU
and of course outside common market
the numbers are what they are
but the euro could do some serious targeted devals with non zone EC members
even if only to reduce trans bordr corporate arbitrage profits
if not to close trade gaps
---too often this distinction is lost if the only goal is balanced trade ---
the intra zone north/south arbitrage is certainly
 all pk seems hep to
and i agree this need not be the biggest gap maker
for club med players
i hunt for "unearned profits"
 not trade imbalances per se
over time you can be de industrialized thru arbitrage
even while trade remains mostly in balance

the basic problem is of course
the MNCs want these slowly closing distortions
if they can beat up a national economy they will
especially if they can hold it by the throat forex wise
and bash at it or us its fiddled forex to bash another national market by shooting in imports

the more i look at the global market game i see the hedge row policy and the mow down the hedge rows as part of a beat em coming and going strategy
MNCs can play

only a very alert nation state can hope to gain
a big slice of the gains from trade in this game


yes china can play it

south africa brazil ?

we'll see