there are just risks with too high premiums "
so uncle steps in ...right ?
how ?
let us count the ways uncle is unlike a private insurance compnay
uncle has risky mae for big cats
where did she come from ?
" Governmental disaster insurance schemes didn’t appear magically in a vacuum;
they were created because no one was willing to pay enough money in premiums
to allow insurance companies to properly fund for them,
and as a result the inevitable losses were uncovered."
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
the constrained choice that preserves the system
mitt or barry ?
Okay so it could be a wee bit less constrained
but kalecki macro policy
Would prove to be the thin edge of the wedge
after all that more or less leads to a profit squeeze wage price spiral ...no ?
Why revisit the roaring70's ?
That is unless you have a cure
for the wage/ profit product price spiral
cures exist
but they break the constraints
cures would only push the system away from
it's self preserving center
of de facto state power
ahhh The private oligopoly outfits
they find the way forward eventually
after trying every other way first
and even when they move the system forward
one can easily count the piles of forgone private wages
and social output
latest example
the fall 08 crisis ...
12 trillion in sacrficed output
to find the way thru this
whilst keeping within the system constraints
Okay so it could be a wee bit less constrained
but kalecki macro policy
Would prove to be the thin edge of the wedge
after all that more or less leads to a profit squeeze wage price spiral ...no ?
Why revisit the roaring70's ?
That is unless you have a cure
for the wage/ profit product price spiral
cures exist
but they break the constraints
cures would only push the system away from
it's self preserving center
of de facto state power
ahhh The private oligopoly outfits
they find the way forward eventually
after trying every other way first
and even when they move the system forward
one can easily count the piles of forgone private wages
and social output
latest example
the fall 08 crisis ...
12 trillion in sacrficed output
to find the way thru this
whilst keeping within the system constraints
behind nick rowe's ass looms a barking dog ...or two
On Nick Rowe's point about the competing definitions of money, clearly both are there. Indeed, that they both operate is key to the fundamental contradiction that faces monetary policymakers all the time: whether to expand or limit the size of the money supply, whatever it is. The medium of exchange function says, "expand" so the economy can grow, while the unit of account function says "limit it" so that the unit of account can retain its value over time. There is no escape from this conflict.
an exchange on mitt's han jeep jump whopper
pgl said...
Ah c'mon. Why is this news? Romney has lied about EVERYTHING. Don't you know he is running for LIAR IN CHIEF?
jonathan said...
Have you thought about this in terms of market theories?
One idea is that there is a marketplace for information and that more players, more information not only generates more "information" but acts as a corrective which encourages better information. This is a version of the idea that markets are beneficial; it takes the idea of market optimization and adds to it the kind of qualitative outcome proponents of market theories say are the natural result.
In contrast there is the idea that bad drives out good. Advertising for false medical remedies didn't go away until they were regulated, etc.
Looking at what's been happening, it looks like political advertising is more like medical remedies than what proponents of markets hope. There is a benefit in lying. Or at least a perceived benefit in lying and that's what counts. Lose the election and lie again the next time.
I'm going to remember how this has evolved whenever anyone says we should rely on markets to achieve an optimal result. We may want a result but that doesn't mean markets will generate what we want. This was the old rationale for regulation: unchecked, markets go their own way and that can be bad because markets generate outcomes that are optimal only in the sense they are generated by the market.
One idea is that there is a marketplace for information and that more players, more information not only generates more "information" but acts as a corrective which encourages better information. This is a version of the idea that markets are beneficial; it takes the idea of market optimization and adds to it the kind of qualitative outcome proponents of market theories say are the natural result.
In contrast there is the idea that bad drives out good. Advertising for false medical remedies didn't go away until they were regulated, etc.
Looking at what's been happening, it looks like political advertising is more like medical remedies than what proponents of markets hope. There is a benefit in lying. Or at least a perceived benefit in lying and that's what counts. Lose the election and lie again the next time.
I'm going to remember how this has evolved whenever anyone says we should rely on markets to achieve an optimal result. We may want a result but that doesn't mean markets will generate what we want. This was the old rationale for regulation: unchecked, markets go their own way and that can be bad because markets generate outcomes that are optimal only in the sense they are generated by the market.
denim said...
I hear that God is on our side, those of us who work righteousness. Acts 10:34:
"Then Peter opened his mouth, and said, Of a truth I perceive that God is no respecter of persons: But in every nation he that feareth him, and works righteousness, is accepted with him."
And for lying politicians of any ilk, Psalm 50:
"...14 Sacrifice thank offerings to God, fulfill your vows to the Most High, 15 and call upon me in the day of trouble; I will deliver you, and you will honor me.” 16 But to the wicked, God says: “What right have you to recite my laws or take my covenant on your lips? 17 You hate my instruction and cast my words behind you. 18 When you see a thief, you join with him; you throw in your lot with adulterers. 19 You use your mouth for evil and harness your tongue to deceit. 20 You speak continually against your brother and slander your own mother’s son. 21 These things you have done and I kept silent; you thought I was altogether like you. 14 Sacrifice thank offerings to God, fulfill your vows to the Most High, 15 and call upon me in the day of trouble; I will deliver you, and you will honor me.” 16 But to the wicked, God says: “What right have you to recite my laws or take my covenant on your lips? 17 You hate my instruction and cast my words behind you. 18 When you see a thief, you join with him; you throw in your lot with adulterers. 19 You use your mouth for evil and harness your tongue to deceit. 20 You speak continually against your brother and slander your own mother’s son. 21 These things you have done and I kept silent; you thought I was altogether like you. But I will rebuke you and accuse you to your face."
"These things you have done and I kept silent; you thought I was altogether like you. But I will rebuke you and accuse you to your face."
If looks could stop a clock,
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/romney-says-hes-winning-its-a-bluff.html
"Then Peter opened his mouth, and said, Of a truth I perceive that God is no respecter of persons: But in every nation he that feareth him, and works righteousness, is accepted with him."
And for lying politicians of any ilk, Psalm 50:
"...14 Sacrifice thank offerings to God, fulfill your vows to the Most High, 15 and call upon me in the day of trouble; I will deliver you, and you will honor me.” 16 But to the wicked, God says: “What right have you to recite my laws or take my covenant on your lips? 17 You hate my instruction and cast my words behind you. 18 When you see a thief, you join with him; you throw in your lot with adulterers. 19 You use your mouth for evil and harness your tongue to deceit. 20 You speak continually against your brother and slander your own mother’s son. 21 These things you have done and I kept silent; you thought I was altogether like you. 14 Sacrifice thank offerings to God, fulfill your vows to the Most High, 15 and call upon me in the day of trouble; I will deliver you, and you will honor me.” 16 But to the wicked, God says: “What right have you to recite my laws or take my covenant on your lips? 17 You hate my instruction and cast my words behind you. 18 When you see a thief, you join with him; you throw in your lot with adulterers. 19 You use your mouth for evil and harness your tongue to deceit. 20 You speak continually against your brother and slander your own mother’s son. 21 These things you have done and I kept silent; you thought I was altogether like you. But I will rebuke you and accuse you to your face."
"These things you have done and I kept silent; you thought I was altogether like you. But I will rebuke you and accuse you to your face."
If looks could stop a clock,
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/romney-says-hes-winning-its-a-bluff.html
Dave said...
My only quibble with this premise: We've never had a "truth" era in US politics, so we can't have a "post-truth" era. Pick a supposed idyllic time when men were real men, and I'll give you a completely outrageously wrong political lie that formed the centerpiece of a party agenda.
Oupoot said...
Only in the US. Freedom of speech is critical for democracy and should be protected. But most civilised countries have placed limits to this right precisely so that they remain civilised.
Mano Philips said...
My comment on Dana Milbank's Washington Post column
"Romney goes off-road with the truth"
The Elephant in the Room
It was Romney who shipped thousands of Auto jobs to China; why is MSM silent on this.
Investigative Reporter Greg Palast on Truthout
"The truth? On June 1, 2009, the Obama administration announced that Detroit Piston's owner Tom Gores, GM and the US Treasury would buy back Delphi.The plan called for saving 15 of 29 Delphi factories in the US. Then the vulture funds pounced. The Nation discovered that, in the two weeks immediately following the announcement of the Delphi jobs-saving plan, Paul Singer, Romney's partner, secretly bought up over a billion dollars of old Delphi bonds for pennies on the dollar. Singer and partners now controlled the company - and killed the return of Delphi to GM. These facts were revealed in a sworn deposition of Delphi's Chief Financial Officer John Sheehan, confidential, but now released on the Web. Sheehan said, under oath, that these speculators threatened to withhold key parts (steering columns), from GM. This would have brought the auto maker to its knees, immediately forcing GM's permanent closure. The extortion worked. The government money that was supposed to go to save jobs went to Singer's hedge fund, Elliott Management Corporation and its partners, including the Romneys. Once Singer's crew took control of Delphi, they rapidly completed the move to China, sticking the US taxpayers with the bill for the pensions of the Delphi workers cut loose. Dan Loeb, a million-dollar donor to the GOP, who made three-quarters of a billion dollars off the legal scam, proudly announced that, once he and Elliott took control, Delphi kept "virtually no North American unionized labor." In all, three hedge funds run by Romney's million-dollar donors have pocketed $4.2 billion, a return on their "investment" of over 3,000 percent - all care of the US taxpayer. The Romneys personally earned a minimum of $15.3 million, though more likely $115 million - a range their campaign does not dispute.
Please see these:
Delphi Workers - Greg Palast - http://www.gregpalast.com/how-mitt-romney-profited-from-delphi-workers-misery/ Truthout - http://truth-out.org/progressivepicks/item/12273-romney-company-shipped-every-single-delphi-uaw-job-to-china The Nation - Romney's Bailout Bonanza - http://www.thenation.com/article/170644/mitt-romneys-bailout-bonanza#
"Romney goes off-road with the truth"
The Elephant in the Room
It was Romney who shipped thousands of Auto jobs to China; why is MSM silent on this.
Investigative Reporter Greg Palast on Truthout
"The truth? On June 1, 2009, the Obama administration announced that Detroit Piston's owner Tom Gores, GM and the US Treasury would buy back Delphi.The plan called for saving 15 of 29 Delphi factories in the US. Then the vulture funds pounced. The Nation discovered that, in the two weeks immediately following the announcement of the Delphi jobs-saving plan, Paul Singer, Romney's partner, secretly bought up over a billion dollars of old Delphi bonds for pennies on the dollar. Singer and partners now controlled the company - and killed the return of Delphi to GM. These facts were revealed in a sworn deposition of Delphi's Chief Financial Officer John Sheehan, confidential, but now released on the Web. Sheehan said, under oath, that these speculators threatened to withhold key parts (steering columns), from GM. This would have brought the auto maker to its knees, immediately forcing GM's permanent closure. The extortion worked. The government money that was supposed to go to save jobs went to Singer's hedge fund, Elliott Management Corporation and its partners, including the Romneys. Once Singer's crew took control of Delphi, they rapidly completed the move to China, sticking the US taxpayers with the bill for the pensions of the Delphi workers cut loose. Dan Loeb, a million-dollar donor to the GOP, who made three-quarters of a billion dollars off the legal scam, proudly announced that, once he and Elliott took control, Delphi kept "virtually no North American unionized labor." In all, three hedge funds run by Romney's million-dollar donors have pocketed $4.2 billion, a return on their "investment" of over 3,000 percent - all care of the US taxpayer. The Romneys personally earned a minimum of $15.3 million, though more likely $115 million - a range their campaign does not dispute.
Please see these:
Delphi Workers - Greg Palast - http://www.gregpalast.com/how-mitt-romney-profited-from-delphi-workers-misery/ Truthout - http://truth-out.org/progressivepicks/item/12273-romney-company-shipped-every-single-delphi-uaw-job-to-china The Nation - Romney's Bailout Bonanza - http://www.thenation.com/article/170644/mitt-romneys-bailout-bonanza#
save_the_rustbelt said...
Stayed in my Toledo condo last night, a few miles from the Jeep plant.
Chrysler Jeep has in the past (until 2009) and will likely in the future produce Jeeps in China. The only promise by Marchionne (SP?) is that current Wrangler production will not be moved overseas.
The (Toledo) Blade has done better journalism on this than the national media.
Chrysler Jeep has in the past (until 2009) and will likely in the future produce Jeeps in China. The only promise by Marchionne (SP?) is that current Wrangler production will not be moved overseas.
The (Toledo) Blade has done better journalism on this than the national media.
Comment below or sign
Free rider Charybdis free loader Scylla
taking your look from a white male low ed voter perspective
the dembots since 1968
have gotten their brand on the wrong side of both these monsters
the dembots since 1968
have gotten their brand on the wrong side of both these monsters
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
new most repulsive humanoid
timmy tubfest
" I rarely watch 8 hours of television per week, much less per day. "
"I had a conversation the other day in which someone was incredulous
that I have never seen an episode of Seinfeld, or Friends,
or actually any sitcom in the last decade or so."
" I told them that I used to watch M*A*S*H now and then
, and they looked at me with pity."
pity ?
pity!
"get out the flame thrower" i say
roast the prig pig
"the Federal Government should undertake no governmental, social or economic action, except where local government, or the people, cannot undertake it for themselves ... "
thanx for the tip herbie
pretty big gaps there to sail the top down totalization fleet thru
can not standing alone
provide adequate metrics of either equity or efficiency
no comparative dynamics
a set of evaluative metric dimensions scream at us to be heard
b4 we assign tasks to levels and sectors
building the best set of institutions gets very little light from this Hooverian maxim
little guy big bogosity bobby reich : "America faces a huge budget deficit"
can he really NOT see the facts here ?
is he just hungry for more revenue ?
has he never worked thru the numbers on debt accumulation rates
debt service rates real gdp growth rates and inflation rates ?
is that possible ?
Monday, October 29, 2012
socialization of household usury
that is the great new macro tool
activated conciously during the post war era
even in the pre great moderation phases
basically heat up the residential mortgage market ...chill the residential mortgage market
oh ya and car loan markets
then came credit cards student loans
a vast symphony of household debt instruments
activated conciously during the post war era
even in the pre great moderation phases
basically heat up the residential mortgage market ...chill the residential mortgage market
oh ya and car loan markets
then came credit cards student loans
a vast symphony of household debt instruments
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
housing hits macro coming and going
MEW ?
mortgage equity withdrawal
check out peal MEW
more like a roar eh ?
zero real return "citizen " bonds ( ZRRs )
this amounts to stable purchasing power
and beside that social good
it means no ability to use the product price level path to "trim"
latent purchasing power contained in the bond stock /debt stock/obligation grid
in the event of outflow exceeding inflow to this stock of zero real bonds
where old issue pay offs exceed new issue buy ups
and with final output production running at capacity
and inadequate buffer stocks of final products
we get a broad product price event
or shortages
how might this be pre empted
by forward looking price increase policy
if this stock is real PP protected
then there is no way to trim this demand
would one increase taxes on work income
how far in advance ?
as far in advance as possible ?
to reduce the inflow to the stock of ZRRs
now consider
a "savings system "
where bonds are issued with real coupon returns equal to the change in per job hour real output ?
and beside that social good
it means no ability to use the product price level path to "trim"
latent purchasing power contained in the bond stock /debt stock/obligation grid
in the event of outflow exceeding inflow to this stock of zero real bonds
where old issue pay offs exceed new issue buy ups
and with final output production running at capacity
and inadequate buffer stocks of final products
we get a broad product price event
or shortages
how might this be pre empted
by forward looking price increase policy
if this stock is real PP protected
then there is no way to trim this demand
would one increase taxes on work income
how far in advance ?
as far in advance as possible ?
to reduce the inflow to the stock of ZRRs
now consider
a "savings system "
where bonds are issued with real coupon returns equal to the change in per job hour real output ?
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
excessive levels of foreign exchange reserves :is this screen sound inhunt to find the forex fiddlers
nope
this is perhaps sufficient evidence but not necessary evidence
trad might even be in deficit
we need to do a fairly complex calculation to scoop up all the forex arbitrage profits
we gotta start with real exchange ratios between products and between wages and other resources at ppp
build a ppp consistent synthetic forex rate etc etc blah blah blah
gagnon omics part II he is more then just a titanic quantitative easer
.... In order to get manipulators to agree to this change in international rules, the main targets of currency manipulation—the United States and the euro area—may have to play tough. "
here's gaggy's solution:
".. tax or otherwise restrict purchases of US and euro area financial assets by currency manipulators."
View full document [pdf]
busting a klein bottle
" 1) What you’re saying when you say you want to put an end to global currency manipulation is that you want a weaker dollar. That’s what currency manipulation is: An effort by other countries to artificially strengthen the dollar in order to make their currency — and thus their exports — comparatively cheaper. But if we want to weaken our dollar, we could just, you know, weaken the dollar."
"2) China is not the world’s worst currency manipulator, or even particularly close to it. Singapore is worse than China. Taiwan is worse than China. These days, Switzerland and Japan are arguably worse than China. And there are other countries, like Israel, who aren’t worse than China, but who are still pretty bad. :
Now, most of these countries are also much smaller than China, so we care about them a bit less. But still, it’s hard to take aim at China when so many other countries are getting worse. To the Chinese, it looks like you’re singling them out."
"3) China is getting much better. They’ve allowed their currency to rise substantially in recent years. Gagnon told me that China’s ”current account peaked at 10.7 percent of GDP in 2007. This year, it looks like it’ll only be 2 percent.” It seems a bit weird to intensify the pressure on China, and to try and publicly humiliate them, at the exact moment when they’re doing what we’ve been asking them to do.there was a very good case for the [U.S.] to take action against China five years ago, but not now.”"
"4) Calling someone a “currency manipulator” doesn’t trigger some magical process that leads to them no longer manipulating their currency. On its own, its nothing but an international insult. But if you follow through, then it’s a first step towards slapping tariffs on Chinese goods. But then China can begin slapping retaliatory tariffs on our goods. Does anyone think that a trade war with China would be a good thing right now? If so, why?"
"5) Many experts think calling China a “currency manipulator” will backfire. China, at times, seems to run a pride-based foreign policy. If the rest of the world demands they do something, they simply refuse to do it. After all, it doesn’t look good to ordinary Chinese if China is permitting America to set its monetary policy. Thus, if you want to call China a “currency manipulator,” you need an explanation for why that’s a better strategy than the one we’re following, which has actually led to China permitting its currency to appreciate. “Getting tough” is a posture, not a policy argument.
For the record, there are experts, like Gagnon, who believe that the United States needs to think about how to get tougher on currency manipulation overall. He’s got some ideas on how to do that here. But the case to just get tough on China, and to do it by trying to humiliate them on the world stage, is much weaker today than it was five or eight years ago."
"2) China is not the world’s worst currency manipulator, or even particularly close to it. Singapore is worse than China. Taiwan is worse than China. These days, Switzerland and Japan are arguably worse than China. And there are other countries, like Israel, who aren’t worse than China, but who are still pretty bad. :
Now, most of these countries are also much smaller than China, so we care about them a bit less. But still, it’s hard to take aim at China when so many other countries are getting worse. To the Chinese, it looks like you’re singling them out."
"3) China is getting much better. They’ve allowed their currency to rise substantially in recent years. Gagnon told me that China’s ”current account peaked at 10.7 percent of GDP in 2007. This year, it looks like it’ll only be 2 percent.” It seems a bit weird to intensify the pressure on China, and to try and publicly humiliate them, at the exact moment when they’re doing what we’ve been asking them to do.there was a very good case for the [U.S.] to take action against China five years ago, but not now.”"
"4) Calling someone a “currency manipulator” doesn’t trigger some magical process that leads to them no longer manipulating their currency. On its own, its nothing but an international insult. But if you follow through, then it’s a first step towards slapping tariffs on Chinese goods. But then China can begin slapping retaliatory tariffs on our goods. Does anyone think that a trade war with China would be a good thing right now? If so, why?"
"5) Many experts think calling China a “currency manipulator” will backfire. China, at times, seems to run a pride-based foreign policy. If the rest of the world demands they do something, they simply refuse to do it. After all, it doesn’t look good to ordinary Chinese if China is permitting America to set its monetary policy. Thus, if you want to call China a “currency manipulator,” you need an explanation for why that’s a better strategy than the one we’re following, which has actually led to China permitting its currency to appreciate. “Getting tough” is a posture, not a policy argument.
For the record, there are experts, like Gagnon, who believe that the United States needs to think about how to get tougher on currency manipulation overall. He’s got some ideas on how to do that here. But the case to just get tough on China, and to do it by trying to humiliate them on the world stage, is much weaker today than it was five or eight years ago."
Monday, October 22, 2012
slow down ahead for han express?
"Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down."
" The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices"
", a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015."
" Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates"
all quotes from barry eichy et al
have they rectified the Han fiddle yet ?
that plunging surplus
an indication we might sound the " all clear" ?
an indication we might sound the " all clear" ?
of course not !!!!
christ the fiddle sticks thru balanced trade if balance is contrived by
"other means" then pure forex adjustments
christ the fiddle sticks thru balanced trade if balance is contrived by
"other means" then pure forex adjustments
look to the spreads
greater and lesser depressions
that left arm
--prior to trough-
shows the gentle ben difference
keynesian klarabell krugman goes deep and finds only " a samuelsonian social contrivance "
" the notion that there must be a “fundamental” source for money’s value, although it’s a right-wing trope, bears a strong family resemblance to the Marxist labor theory of value."
" In each case what people are missing is that value is an emergent property, not an essence: money, and actually everything, has a market value based on the role it plays in our economy — full stop."
"value is an emergent property, not an essence"
we all know essences never emerge
think plato's cave
essences don't exist
their fans simply insist
"the Marxist labor theory of value"
" he's talking about the marxist labor theory of value ...marxist ! you noodle head.... marxist !"
ricardo sighs with relief
------------------------------------------
"actually everything, has a market value
based on the role it plays in our economy"
markets create by emergence the value of everything
and so are we to suppose
the price of nothing
its a paradox
labor plays its role less well these days
or does it just have a smaller part ?
of course there are no small roles only small....essences
" In each case what people are missing is that value is an emergent property, not an essence: money, and actually everything, has a market value based on the role it plays in our economy — full stop."
"value is an emergent property, not an essence"
we all know essences never emerge
think plato's cave
essences don't exist
their fans simply insist
"the Marxist labor theory of value"
" he's talking about the marxist labor theory of value ...marxist ! you noodle head.... marxist !"
ricardo sighs with relief
------------------------------------------
"actually everything, has a market value
based on the role it plays in our economy"
markets create by emergence the value of everything
and so are we to suppose
the price of nothing
its a paradox
labor plays its role less well these days
or does it just have a smaller part ?
of course there are no small roles only small....essences
IT COMES DOWN TO WHO BORROWS
the present effective demand dirth can only be filled up with borrowed funds
uncle borrows and pays out is always beter then we the weebles getting special re introductory usury terms and amounts eh ?
now of course we can't even trigger a usury fueled boom here anyway
so .....
uncle borrows and pays out is always beter then we the weebles getting special re introductory usury terms and amounts eh ?
now of course we can't even trigger a usury fueled boom here anyway
so .....
lord K " “… no country can . . . safely allow the flight of funds for political reasons or to evade domestic taxation or in anticipation of the owner turning refugee. Equally, there is no country that can safely receive fugitive funds, which constitute an unwanted import of capital, yet cannot safely be used for fixed investment.”
paula versus dean
debate topic
what if we had just let laputa sink to the bottom of the atlantic ?
paula
"heavens what a bigger mess we'd be in today"
dean
" we'd be right about where we are "
-------------------------------------------
the implied dean line:
separate the lot bubble pop
from its hi fi laputa knock on effects and...?
somehow imagine we don't get the knock on hi fi laputa market effects
remove the spike
we'd still have the lot plop though maybe its a slow slow many many quarter plop
------------------------------------------------------------------------
notes to myself:
---an expectational quantum shift convulsion ??---
---the repro market convulsion happens of course i guess ---
at any rate look at it in reverse:
without the underlying fast contraction of lot values
the fall 08 crisis might have proceeeded like the dot com pop after math
or the after math of the earlier savings and loan blow out
ie
without the huge bash to medium term householder spending
that the house lot hyper quick by lot dynamic standards
' pop and plop' collateral crash registered
in the after math of the lot melt down
underwater householders spending fueled by go go usury policy
could not resume
and since a first world north hemi wage boom was out of the question....
what if we had just let laputa sink to the bottom of the atlantic ?
paula
"heavens what a bigger mess we'd be in today"
dean
" we'd be right about where we are "
-------------------------------------------
the implied dean line:
separate the lot bubble pop
from its hi fi laputa knock on effects and...?
somehow imagine we don't get the knock on hi fi laputa market effects
remove the spike
we'd still have the lot plop though maybe its a slow slow many many quarter plop
------------------------------------------------------------------------
notes to myself:
---an expectational quantum shift convulsion ??---
---the repro market convulsion happens of course i guess ---
at any rate look at it in reverse:
without the underlying fast contraction of lot values
the fall 08 crisis might have proceeeded like the dot com pop after math
or the after math of the earlier savings and loan blow out
ie
without the huge bash to medium term householder spending
that the house lot hyper quick by lot dynamic standards
' pop and plop' collateral crash registered
in the after math of the lot melt down
underwater householders spending fueled by go go usury policy
could not resume
and since a first world north hemi wage boom was out of the question....
securitization advanced during the great moderation ...and so did" derivatization"
"..from 1990-2005 the estimated sum of
equity-market capitalization,
outstanding total bond issues (sovereign and corporate) and global bank assets
rose from 81% to 137% ...."of Global GP (gross product),
the last bit
bank assets is of course traditional monoploy stage financialization
a guilded age dinosaur ..still thriving ..till it crashed..
on its crazy eddie off regulation edges
derivatives ?
" ..over-the-counter derivatives markets tripled" between 2000 and 2005
to $285 trillion.."
"..six times .." Global GP
outstanding total bond issues (sovereign and corporate) and global bank assets
rose from 81% to 137% ...."of Global GP (gross product),
the last bit
bank assets is of course traditional monoploy stage financialization
a guilded age dinosaur ..still thriving ..till it crashed..
on its crazy eddie off regulation edges
derivatives ?
" ..over-the-counter derivatives markets tripled" between 2000 and 2005
to $285 trillion.."
"..six times .." Global GP
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Plansmart institute to open in January
eve abel and my older brother js are at long last giving us
a tentaive launch date
first erection
the mark up warrant mechanism
a tentaive launch date
first erection
the mark up warrant mechanism
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
euro zone secessionism
of course it makes sense
when the functions of the state worth keeping
are all at the level of the euro corral
not the historic state level
nationalism is fragmenting these historic accidents
into more solid basic units
divide today to re unify at a higher level tomorrow
when the functions of the state worth keeping
are all at the level of the euro corral
not the historic state level
nationalism is fragmenting these historic accidents
into more solid basic units
divide today to re unify at a higher level tomorrow
Monday, October 15, 2012
pk nicky knot hola and the debt burden waddlings of n successive generations
" a debt inherited from the past is, in effect, simply a rule requiring that one group of people — the people who didn’t inherit bonds from their parents — make a transfer to another group, the people who did" pk
pk avoids the main point of rowe
bonds bought not inherited
what rowe misses
that buying "generation"
sells the bonds to a third generation
and on and on it goes
Friday, October 12, 2012
polarizing wealth can have no merit
"the model assumes that all households are identical with respect to patience (consumption decisions) and skill (earnings ability). Household outcomes differ solely because they have idiosyncratic investment opportunities—that is, they can’t invest in the market, only in things like privately-held businesses or unique pieces of real estate. Yet when you simulate the model, you see an increasing share of wealth finding its way into fewer and fewer hands:"
the first graph is non-routine cognitive
the second is non-routine manual
the third is routine
the second is non-routine manual
the third is routine
"In the last 30 years the US labor market has been characterized by job polarization and jobless recoveries. In this paper we demonstrate how these are related. We first show that the loss of middle-skill, routine jobs is concentrated in economic downturns. In this sense, the job polarization trend is a business cycle phenomenon. Second, we show that job polarization accounts for jobless recoveries. This argument is based on the fact that almost all of the contraction in aggregate employment during recessions can be attributed to job losses in middle-skill, routine occupations (that account for a large fraction of total employment), and that jobless recoveries are observed only in these disappearing routine jobs since job polarization began. We then propose a simple search-and-matching model of the labor market with occupational choice to rationalize these facts. We show how a trend in routine-biased technological change can lead to job polarization that is concentrated in downturns, and recoveries from these recessions that are jobless".
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
a view into forecasting participation dynamics
"
... expecting a couple of recent trends to continue: lower participation rates for people in the 16 to 24 year age group and an increase in the participation for older age groups".
"...a large cohort is moving
from the 55 to 59 age category
into the 60 to 64 age group....
..... Even though the participation rate
is rising for the age group, it is lower than for the 45-to-55 age groups ...pushing down over all participation..."
"There are counter acting changes...
A fairly large group just moved into the 20-to-24 age group, ie moving into higher participation age groups "
"...for men in the 16-to-19 the P rate declined sharply from 2000 through 2007 "
the sweet spot :
after late school before early retirement
ie mid streamers men 35 -44
" A long term down trend
from about 97% participation in 1968 to about 91% participation now
...short term trend - from 1995 through 2007
... about a 1% decline in the participation rate due to the recession (from 92% to 91%)....
long term trend
participation rate is about what we'd expect."
... expecting a couple of recent trends to continue: lower participation rates for people in the 16 to 24 year age group and an increase in the participation for older age groups"."...a large cohort is moving
from the 55 to 59 age category
into the 60 to 64 age group....
..... Even though the participation rate
is rising for the age group, it is lower than for the 45-to-55 age groups ...pushing down over all participation..."
"There are counter acting changes...
A fairly large group just moved into the 20-to-24 age group, ie moving into higher participation age groups "
"...for men in the 16-to-19 the P rate declined sharply from 2000 through 2007 "the sweet spot :
after late school before early retirement
ie mid streamers men 35 -44
" A long term down trend
from about 97% participation in 1968 to about 91% participation now
...short term trend - from 1995 through 2007
... about a 1% decline in the participation rate due to the recession (from 92% to 91%)....
long term trend
participation rate is about what we'd expect."
Saturday, October 6, 2012
wage boom product inflation vs monopoly repricing and rent wind fall bubble ups from credit based spec-ing
the gross debt ratio to gross product is no good
look at household debt to household earned income
look at household debt to household earned income
we are all taxpayers we are all bond holders:
what's wrong with that statement ?
yes you need to model the distribution of both
taxes and bond holdings
over households
to get an idea of winners and losers that a certain policy path might generate
for instance:
we can have low inflation with un-pinned lending rates
and thus higher debt service leading to higher taxes
or
we might have lower real returns and lower taxes
thru high inflation with pinned lending rates
usually fellahs out to putting you inside a desirable thought box
leave out some vital capacity of a central bank in a pure credit money system
but another nice trick is to lump us all together and then look at only one set of consequences
or separate out the widows and orphans
or the sharks of lower manhattan
or
ya to get your mind's arms all the way around this stuff requires a model
but of course its models that contain the magic tricks too
yes you need to model the distribution of both
taxes and bond holdings
over households
to get an idea of winners and losers that a certain policy path might generate
for instance:
we can have low inflation with un-pinned lending rates
and thus higher debt service leading to higher taxes
or
we might have lower real returns and lower taxes
thru high inflation with pinned lending rates
usually fellahs out to putting you inside a desirable thought box
leave out some vital capacity of a central bank in a pure credit money system
but another nice trick is to lump us all together and then look at only one set of consequences
or separate out the widows and orphans
or the sharks of lower manhattan
or
ya to get your mind's arms all the way around this stuff requires a model
but of course its models that contain the magic tricks too
pure unitary credit and grant system
the anachronism of an existing stock of finacial capacity
and the resultant
tacit fixed limits of the value of productive factors in simultaneous operation
the vail of independent funding fixity over the perfect elastcity
of a pure credit ration system leads to meaningless constraints
on firm formation expansion / contraction
pricing and output decision autonomy
the efficacy of red ink barriers
and the organization of internal control
and the resultant
tacit fixed limits of the value of productive factors in simultaneous operation
the vail of independent funding fixity over the perfect elastcity
of a pure credit ration system leads to meaningless constraints
on firm formation expansion / contraction
pricing and output decision autonomy
the efficacy of red ink barriers
and the organization of internal control
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