Tuesday, October 9, 2012

a view into forecasting participation dynamics

"Participation Rate... expecting a couple of recent trends to continue: lower participation rates for people in the 16 to 24 year age group and an increase in the participation for older age groups".

"...a large cohort is moving
 from the 55 to 59 age category
 into the 60 to 64 age group....Rail Traffic
.....  Even though the participation rate
 is rising for the age group, it is lower than for the 45-to-55 age groups ...pushing down over all participation..."

"There are  counter acting changes...
A fairly large group just moved into the 20-to-24 age group, ie moving into higher participation age groups "

Participation Rate"...for men in the 16-to-19  the  P rate declined sharply from 2000 through 2007 "

the sweet spot :

after late school before early retirement
ie mid streamers men 35 -44

" A long term down trend
 from about 97% participation in 1968 to about 91% participation now
...short term trend - from 1995 through 2007
... about a 1% decline in the participation rate due to the recession (from 92% to 91%)....
 long term trend
participation rate is about what we'd expect."