Saturday, December 10, 2011

"Unlike the normal job gains and losses that occur as firms grow and fail, globalisation shocks can result in sharp reductions in demand, economy-wide, for specific tasks. Re-attaching to the workforce may then require a more fundamental retraining of these workers. It remains an open question whether the programmes in place to retrain workers are adequate to the task."

"Being laid off is painful, and it turns out that offshoring makes lay-offs even more traumatic. Figure 1 plots the change in earnings for college-educated workers who were displaced from employment in year “0” (measured in Danish Krona – DKK). The solid line shows mass lay-off displacement due to offshoring and the dotted line shows mass layoff displacement due to other reasons (e.g. failing firms going out of business). One year after displacement, college-educated workers laid-off from offshoring firms lose 64,000 DKK, or 15% of pre-displacement earning. These losses are more than double the loss for other laid-off college-educated workers, and the earnings losses are more persistent.
Figure 1. Earnings after lay off, high skilled (DKK)

Figure 2. Earnings after lay off, low skilled (DKK)

Figure 2 tells the same story for non-college educated workers, but the effects are even more pronounced with displaced workers losing 21% of their pre-displacement earnings. Offshoring increases earnings losses after lay-offs and makes earnings losses more persistent.
Why? Workers displaced due to offshoring are much more likely than other displaced workers to remain unemployed or out of the labour force, and offshored workers are more likely to switch industries in order to regain employment. This suggests that globalisation shocks are reducing demand for these workers’ skills, not only within the offshoring firm but throughout the Danish economy. In contrast, a worker displaced from a failing firm may find it relatively easy to find employment with a successful competitor because similar jobs are still available within the Danish economy."

dane rule ...here too ...doubtless