Saturday, April 28, 2012
Fisher dynamics revisited
When neo hicksians of the monetary policy cyclopian variety like gentle Ben and Paul the rug rat
Circa. 2000 ie the era of japan bashing and superior posing of policy Rx's
They attack the so called liquidity trap state of the market economy
Thru lowering the real interest rate when now with a system in LT
They can no longer lower the nominal rate
Once all intertemporal securities with a fixed nominal value
Have a zero rate the burden of new debt can't be nominally lower
In a rationed credit system
except by changing the term structure
And of course the amount available on credit lines
The resort is a direct attack of the real value of existing debt itself since simply
recycling existing debt can't any longer reduce the de t burden beyond zero
Apart from lengthening the term of repayment or offering no payment initial periods
The only way to further reduce the burden of debt in a slump
Is to rev up inflation by devaluations and if that isn't acceptable
By some how changing inflational expectations
This is pure reverse fisher effect sort of a back end to pigou effect
But regardless what are the dynamics of this route even if it succeeds in changing inflationary expectations
And how does this process and policy compare with the straight out deficit spending and tax holiday approach
Conjecture
The back up version of pigou would be far slower