The fed determines safe rate safe rate shot that is
But safe rate long ie longer treasury issues are evaluated as a series of short rates
Plus risk
The risk here is fed policy not ....not ...unexpected higher inflation
Gain of course is also not unexpected lower inflation but again unexpected fed policy moves
Thru the policy rate
The link between policy rate and inflation rate is just that a link not a consequence
The policy might decide on a lower real rate instead of a higher nominal rate in the face of higher product price inflation or earnings or dividend rates
