Saturday, June 30, 2012

sethi nails it

"I don't see how it would help resolve the fight over claims that is crippling our recovery. Higher inflation can certainly reduce the real value of outstanding debt in an accounting sense, but this doesn't mean that distressed borrowers will be able to meet their obligations at the originally contracted terms. In order for them to do so, it is necessary that their nominal income rises, not just nominal income in the aggregate. And monetary policy via asset purchases would seem to put money disproportionately in the pockets of existing asset holders, who are more likely to be creditors than debtors. Put differently, while the Fed has the capacity to raise nominal income, it does not have much control over the manner in which this increment is distributed across the population. And the distribution matters.Similar issues arise with inflation. Inflation is just the growth rate of an index number, a weighted average of prices for a broad range of goods and services. The Fed can certainly raise the growth rate of this average, but has virtually no control over its individual components. That is, it cannot increase the inflation rate without simultaneously affecting relative prices. For instance, purchases of assets that drive down long term interest rates will lead to portfolio shifts and an increase in the price of commodities, which are now an actively traded asset class. This in turn will raise input costs for some firms more than others, and these cost increases will affect wages and prices to varying degrees depending on competitive conditions. "