Thursday, June 28, 2012

system patterns of inflation fatuously woodfordly considered

" There are a number of reasons why inflation so defined may be costly.
One is that holding money becomes more expensive, because its purchasing power decreases with inflation."

one might suggest this money tax is a fine way to get agent/players on board the electronic payment and depository grid  
indexing money accounts  sweeps away the tax on money
                                                  as a way to store and preserve " purchasing power  "
 
in a pure credit economy  maintaining real balances is intrinsically costless
 
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"It has been known for some time that inflation goes hand in hand with greater variability in relative prices."
on the face of it this appears signifigant only to those made sensitive
 to substitution and income  effects
 
" To the extent that inflation causes this relative price variability, it is costly, because relative price changes caused by inflation alone distort the market mechanism. "
 
yes if prices have variable adjustment rates and a higher general inflation increases these "absolute " distortions ....
 
"many prices are changed infrequently at different times. If the price of good X is changed each April, and the price of good Y is changed each October, then inflation will cause good Y to be too cheap relative to good X in the summer and too expensive in the winter. "
 
amazing ...no ?
talk about a behaviour based model that has no plausible real  world equivalent
 
"There is no reason in terms of supply or demand for this pattern in the relative price of X in terms of Y, so if it leads to changes in consumption or production it misallocates resources. The higher the rate of inflation, the greater this misallocation cost."

I" Keynesians certainly believe that slow or 'sticky' price adjustment is pervasive, and is largely responsible for generating persistence in business cycles."
 
 
" The reasons why many prices are sticky appear diverse and complex, but imperfectly competitive markets do seem to be important"
 
. "..quantify the costs of the relative price movements generated by inflation and sticky prices"
 
" calculations suggest that changes in inflation generate significant changes in social welfare through this route. "
 
"This means that the type and source of inflation is important. If inflation occurs in commodities where prices are changed frequently, then it is much less costly than if inflation occurs in prices that are sticky. In other words, some types of inflation are more costly than others."

target "'core' inflation...."?
 
.[2] (If there are trends in relative prices, then this idea also influences the optimal inflation target: see Alexander Wolman here, for example.) The same type of argument also suggests that central banks should be concerned with wage inflation as well as price inflation.[3] This is because wages are themselves 'sticky', and so wage inflation will generate costs by changing relative wages in a distortionary manner just as price inflation causes distortionary relative price changes. All this is explained clearly, in considerable technical detail, by Michael Woodford here.

To see why this is important, consider the recent impact of higher oil prices. This has a direct and fairly immediate impact on inflation. A hard-line inflation targeter would say that an inflation target is an inflation target, so the monetary authority should try and make non-oil price inflation fall to offset the impact of higher oil prices. However oil prices, and some things they influence like petrol prices, are pretty flexible. If inflation is costly because it induces unnecessary relative price distortions in prices that are sticky, then it makes sense to focus on inflation measures that give much less weight to oil prices than the consumer price index. In other words, core inflation is not just useful because it helps predict longer term trends in actual inflation, it is important because it actually matters more than actual inflation."