Friday, December 9, 2016

Assuming away bubbles is key to asset market faith and hope

Actions on asset markets blow about the values in a fortuitous fashion
Unless assumptions erase human error and human folly

Rational expectations
Is kind of a bottom up Devine providence
A Principal/ Agent level behavioral equivalent of the invisible hand

But out there is social reality ....

Yes. Asset markets substantive  and paper alike are ultimately tameless brutes

They require adequate and complete  top down  regulation
An imposed  and  complex  system of tethering  and rigging like sails

Either these markets are fully socialized
Or they from time to time
 Will blow away in a high speculative wind
or collapse in a panic induced pessimism sustained doldrum

Of course these varying winds and doldrums are themselves looped into the spot performance of the sails themselves
 Reinforcing the consequences of momentary gusts and pockets
Thus exceeding the sail analogy in their perversity