Tuesday, November 29, 2016

"The long run " is a poor term indeed

The benifull bernanke:

"?...the “long run” values of the variables :  

—the values to which the variables would be expected to converge over time 
if, hypothetically, there were no new shocks to the economy---"


These are values that  locate the systems various interacting " attractor-adjusters "  
Points of mutual balance 

Each such claim
 Posits the existence of  "a rest state " for internal adjustments an end to internal motion 
Beyond the final path where all variables are " content "
 to co operate in a mutually self sustaining motion 

Yes it's a Snuffle-upicus  in there never fully assembled yet always different in its final project able form 

First assume Snuffle -upicus ! 

The key no internal contradictions that will surely pre empt this rest state even without external shocks 

The system self evolves self reorganizes thru the millions of agent actions reactions

But unlike some cloud of confined atoms  there is no dynamic equilibrium value inherent
In the system if left to its own devices

Yes the clever definition of the confinement boundaries can "convert"
 internal contradictions into external shocks

But not without cloaking entanglements that connected the shock source to the internal workings
On the other side of "the confinement lines "

Edgeworth Agents and Newtonian molecules are very different critters

Yes you can try to tame the system
for example " a financial sector "  can be cut out of the system

This Simply ignores the interactions of  the trade based credit systems
And the spontaneous evolution of  a financial system ..long run

Practically this looks like
Put the financial sub system in harness
And the greater system will " grow " a new unregulated one