Sunday, October 2, 2016

How fast can peoples china grow its industrial ouput...on domestic demand growth ?

The global economy as a foreign market
As a target for additional domestic output
is always larger then the domestic market
So long as
DM >  FM

Now DM may be expanding faster
And obviously is ..for now
if you're peoples china

But absolute magnitudes ....

China is 17 %
So 17/83
roughly 1/5

Will china grow five times as fast as the RoW ?

Should china hatch infant industries ?

Sure but to grow into global exporters
Not for import substitution

Now if china is now a producer of final products for the world market
Should it continue to move back up the production chain
Domesticating more of its inputs  ?

At some point
A point not too far ahead if not already behind her
Peoples china should stop protecting domestic production
And allow the RoW move toward balanced trade

After short bursts of expansionism and extended trade
The celestial kingdom may have reverted dynasty after dynasty to inwardness

But today china must face a world it some day   Must fully integrate into