Thursday, July 19, 2012

china could stay a forex cheater and balance her trade

recent trends:

 "imports for processing remained durably depressed because international demand remained weak and their share in GDP was down from 12% to 6%"


".. ordinary imports rebounded quickly as the stimulus plan
 launched late 2008  boosted domestic demand.
In 2011, ordinary importsreached 14% of GDP,
a ratio higher than before the crisis
 comparable to that of the US or Japan."

Major importers, share in world imports (excluding intra-EU trade, %)

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"China’s trade deficits with Asia
come mainly from processing trade. As a part of the ‘Asian factory’, China imports components from its neighbours and exports the processed goods to the rest of the world "

" China’s deficits with Africa and the Middle East
stem from its growing need for raw materials as well as from higher prices.
 Energy and raw materials amounted to
 28% of China’s total imports in 2010, against 22% in 2007

" Exports to China amounted to about 0.6% of GDP in the US
comparable to %  in most EU countries"

" Germany is an exception with exports to China representing 2% of GDP "

"German exporters are  taking advantage of China’s expanding domestic demand."

" over the past 10 years China has increased its imports of consumer goods faster than any other product category, and German exporters have strengthened their position in this market (cars)"
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China's trade balances by regions, 2007-2011 (US$ billion)

 China's trade imbalances 1985-2011 (in percentage of GDP)


"the ratio of exports to GDP contracted from 36% to 28% between 2007 and 2011, processing and ordinary exports being equally affected."

"US, Japan, and the EU received 44% of its exports in 2011"