Sunday, July 29, 2012

pk "imagine an E- zone with just germany and spain"

the current situation looks like this:



notice spain has serious slack  while  germany  is at the point where more demand would lead to ...WAGE INFLATION !!!!! 

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"The current European strategy:
   internal devaluation
 Spain  cuts money  wages to  restore competitiveness "



but cutting money wages is " resisted " strenuously

plus deflation in spain only increases the real weight  of her debt load

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so  pk best macro 

"Aggressively expansionary monetary policy"

" this  shifts the AD curves of both countries to the right. "

" raising  output and employment in Spain,
 and creating  wage inflation  in Germany  "




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note this assumption :

"the ECB can determine nominal GDP for the euro area."

bogus eh

" Under liquidity-trap conditions, this is a very problematic assumption,
 and I don’t mean to drop my skepticism for other purposes."

good

" For right now, however, it’s useful"

oh really ?

"as a proxy for the whole range of possible expansionary policies
the ECB might follow."

rather characteristically pk prefers to make things  "happen" by assuming
 the near impossible !

the ECB could no more kick off such a demand surge
that wages and  prices  spiral in germany while spain recovers zippidity zip

 obviously this is a proxy for its opposite
not monetary policy but fiscal policy
as in
 germany cuts savagely  taxes on job class households
and  guns  up transfer payments


pk wants to avoid the real choice because he wants to  avoid
the entailed fiscal deficit boom that suggests the  idiotic retort
 "  but pk  there's not enough debt space "
 that hassle however is the only road forward out there
in the real market economies  of europe