Sunday, July 1, 2012

the construction sector and national production doldrums: a tale of two countries

Housing overhang in Spain and Ireland


Spain: Construction and current account deficit


Spain borrowed from elsewhere to over build itself

sound premise :

if full recovery of job markets is the goal :

"the resources liberated by aditional  shrinking
of  the construction sector
must be  employed elsewhere in the economy"

false assumption

" at this stage the economy can grow only if exports grow as well"
this suggests full recovery can not preceed balanced trade
which is only so
if   funding
for the implicit   immediate and mid term  deficit
 in any fiscal budget calibrated
to induce a  fast recovery to full employment 
is unavailible  from the ROW
in this case   ROW can mean just the ECB